Trade and welfare implications of genetically modified maize on South Africa

[摘要] English: During the last century, human life and the quality of living have been impacted significantly through continuous developments in science and technology. Man has evolved himself from a hunter and gatherer to the modern man whose lives are enriched with products that relate to information and communication technology, biotechnology and info-space technology. The domestication of biotechnology may dominate our lives during the next fifty years at least as much as the domestication of computers has dominated our lives during the previous fifty years. The advent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has brought rapid change to world agricultural production and trade. Evidence shows that Genetically Modified (GM) crops can have a yield advantage over conventional crops. Currently 46% of the total area utilised in maize production in South Africa is planted with GM maize. South Africa's main trading partners in maize have differing GMO regimes, and many of them may well change their current stances and regulations as the international conventions and agreements on GMOs further evolve. Over and above this regulatory framework, consumer attitudes to GM foods are also changing. The objective of the study is to calculate and quantify the potential impacts of GM maize on the South African maize trade, by applying the GTAP model. This will provide scientific input to South African policy makers on GM maize related regulations in the domestic market, as well as on their stances in the international conventions. The GTAP model is generally accepted by trade researchers as the most suitable tool to analyse the impact of trade policy decisions on trade flows and national welfare on a global level due to its regional and sectoral coverage as well as its theoretical compliance. The results suggest that the South African policy to allow the domestic production of approved GM maize events was to the benefit of the country. Policy measures that will restrict the country's access to new GM maize events will gradually disadvantage both the domestic producers and consumers of maize. The consumers will suffer a decrease in total welfare whilst the producers will be disadvantaged in terms of imported competition. For this reason, commodity clearance before general release should be the exception rather than the rule. In terms of future studies on this issue to further refine the results of this study specific effort should be afforded to improve the changes made to disaggregate the maize sector from other grain sectors, nationally and internationally, in the GTAP model. In addition, it is recommended that trade flows between countries as included in the GTAP model should be scrutinised in detail to check for the correctness of actual flows. This would entail a proper evaluation of the base data of the GTAP model specific to countries playing a relatively smaller role in the international trade of agricultural products. Neglecting to do the aforementioned could result in incorrect policy recommendations.

[发布机构] University of the Free State