PREDICTION OF STORM SURGE INTENSITY IN COASTAL DISASTER EVALUATION

[摘要] In coastal area, serious storm surge disasters are frequently caused by the higher tidal level and concomitant huge wave heights toward shoreline. Qingdao is located at the southern tip of Shandong Peninsula of China. The storm surge disaster in Qingdao depends on various influencing factors such as the intensity, duration, and route of the passing typhoon. In order to make up the defects of the warning water level, a Poisson Bi-variable Gumbel Logistic Distribution is presented to predict storm surge intensity. On the basis of observed records of tidal level and simultaneously occurred wave height series that are sampled from typhoon processes in Qingdao coastal area of China since 1949, the return periods of typhoon surge are estimated by this model. Then a new criterion is put forward to classify intensity grade of disaster-induced typhoon surges. A practical case indicates that the new criterion is clear in probability concept, easy to operate, and fits the calculation of typhoon surge intensity. Thus the procedure with the proposed statistical model will be a reference for the disaster mitigation in the other coastal area influenced by typhoons.

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] storm surge;Poisson Bi-variable Gumbel Logistic distribution;intensity prediction;disaster prevention