EXTREMAL STATISTICS OF STORM SURGES BY TYPHOON

[摘要] The objective of this paper is to propose a new approach based on the direction of the typhoon track for determining the probability of occurrence of extremal tides due to storm surges, as well as their return period. The study includes the effects of periods in tidal data and of tidal variation stemming from extensive reclamation along coasts on the fitness of the extremal data to probability density functions. The method is justified by application to an analysis of the probability of occurrence of storm surges in Osaka bay.

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] storm surge;typhoon;statistics;extreme statistics