The crisis of the nation-state: an evaluation and reconstruction of the perspectives of Alvin Toffler

[摘要] English: During the 1960's and 1970's, Toffler presented a glimpse of the future in hiswork which shook the world. What then seemed unimaginable is now becoming areality. As mankind enters the new millennium, they are confronted with therealization of the nation-state's inability to forfeit durable solutions to transnationalissues such as overpopulation, environmental crises, endemic diseasessuch as AIDS, pollution, terrorism uncontrollable crime, global mafias, transnationalreligious movements, the rise of multinational corporations and the useof private security organizations to protect citizens or state interests. The nation-stateis not fully equipped to deal with many of these global problems. With thenation-state in crisis Toffler has provided a window on the future, especially thepossible political environment, which has many global problems, in the 21stcentury. The shift from the Second Wave industrial civilization to the Third Wavepost-industrial civilization is not destined to evolve peacefully. The reactionariesof the Second Wave (hedgehogs) wish to maintain the existing political orderwithin an industrial society, while the revolutionaries (foxes) choose the radical option of the Third Wave wish to render the Second Wave obsolete. Mankind isnow entering this phase of the master conflict between the two civilizations.Toffler's contributions are aimed at providing a vision of the future so as tofacilitate the shift to the next civilization in a peaceful and rational way.The following factors have served as motivation for this study:- The relevance of Toffler's contributions as mankind enters the 21�?century.- Toffler is an internationally recognized scenario thinker and offers aheretical perspective regarding the future of the nation-state.- A gap that exists within the contemporary literature regarding thereconstruction and evaluation of Toffler's contributions with specificreference to the crisis of the nation-state.- To address the problem of state power in a knowledge-based, computer-drivensociety.- To explore the extent and parameters of the struggle between theindustrial Second Wave elite and the post-industrial Third Wave elite forcontrol of power in the Third Wave civilization.The study attempts to make a contribution towards the following:- The development of a meta-theoretical framework according to whichToffler's contributions may be reconstructed and evaluated.- To determine Toffler's status and position within the identified field ofstudy.- To reconstruct and evaluate Toffler's contributions, regarding the future ofthe nation-state, by applying the meta-theoretical framework as designedfor the purpose of this study.- The role and influence of knowledge as a variable affecting the power ofthe nation-state needs to be explored seeing that the result thereof willaffect humanity in a holistic manner.- An assessment of Toffler's contributions regarding fundamental politicaldevelopment and political change with regard to the evolutionarydevelopment of the nation-state.- Emphasis will be placed on Toffler's contributions regarding the continuumof the nation-state, namely the formation, current status, crises and futureof the nation-state.An evaluation and interpretation of Toffler's work have yielded in the followingfindings:-Toffler has developed a wave model which divides the evolutionarysocialization process of mankind into three universal civilizational waves,i.e. the First Wave agrarian civilization, the Second Wave industrialcivilization and the Third Wave post-industrial civilization.- Toffler has also developed, adjacent to the wave model, a power theorywhich suggests that as one universal civilizational wave is replaced byanother one a power shift occurs, transforming its underlying code orparadigm.- As mankind enters the Third Wave civilization a new blueprint or code hasto been designed which is unique to the Third Wave.- The revolutionary change to a new world order will result in a masterconflict between the reactionaries of the Second Wave (hedgehogs) andthe revolutionaries of the Third Wave (foxes).- Toffler has chosen the Third Wave as a scenario logic and has sketched aprofile of the Third Wave political dispensation.- Toffler's work offers a heretical view of the future which the architects ofthe Third Wave can utilize so as to design a new world order.- Toffler has not only revolutionized the way mankind views the world butalso his own academic growth. When choosing an alternative future worldhe also underwent a transformation away from his Marxist background tothe phenomenological thoughts deeply rooted in the German tradition.In the wake of the master conflict in which the Second and Third WaveCivilizations battle for control of the future, Toffler recognizes a confusedmankind. Instead of supporting the scenario which forwards a world spiraling intodestruction, he offers a blueprint in which the radical changes affecting mankindcan be understood. The focal point of this dissertation is his view of the crises ofthe nation-state, with man experiencing a confused transitional frame of mind.From this foundation Toffler's contributions serve as a tool which will enablemankind to understand the transitional period into the Third Wave. According toToffler the current transitional period of conflict experienced by mankind will befollowed by a period of equilibrium in which a new political dispensation will offer,a new world which is radically different. His contributions will enable mankind, toconquer the crises-ridden stormy transitional period and make the correctdecisions which will culminate in creating the new Third Wave Civilization.

[发布机构] University of the Free State