A NEW METHOD OF APPROACHING EXTREME STORM EVENTS FOR DESIGN LEVEL OR RISK ANALYSIS

[摘要] The North Sea coast is seriously threatened by storm surges. Climate change and its consequences, such as a rising sea level, will have serious effects on the safety of people and economic assets in coastal areas. Within the joint research project XtremRisK (bmbf-funded) the Agency of roads bridges and Waters of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg developed a new method to calculate extreme storm surge events. The purpose of the research work, to calculated physically feasible extreme events is given consideration by detailed analyses of the single storm-surge components (tide, external surge from the Atlantic and wind surge) and their non-linear interactions by combining deterministic-empirical, statistical and numerical methods. The non-linear interactions can be comprised by hydrodynamic equations such as equation of momentum, continuity equation and volume balance. The claim to develop a comprehensive and physically feasible method is satisfied by the diversity of methodical approaches for analyzing the storm surge components and their interaction processes. Therefore a 2-method concept is developed on the basis of empirical and numerical approaches. The resultant new method is a new way of calculating extreme storm surges and can be used within new design concepts to calculate design level heights or could be a part of risk analysis

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] extreme events;storm surge components;non-linear interaction