DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT

[摘要] We analyze decision making under uncertainty in a search for an integral management solution for Playa Granada in the Guadalfeo River Delta (Granada, Spain), where the construction of a dam in the river basin is causing severe erosion. Different management strategies are considered. For each of them the assessment of the uncertainty in the accomplishment of the management targets is done with a methodology that takes into account the coupled action of atmosphere, ocean, and land agents and their intrinsic stochastic character. This information is used to infer the joint distribution function of three criteria that represent the economic benefit of different interest groups. A stochastic multicriteria decision method that accounts for the uncertainty in the performances of alternatives and also in decision makers preferences, is used to rank strategies according to their effectiveness in an informed and transparent process.

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] Stochastic multi-criteria analysis;integrated coastal zone management;decision making under uncertainty