Agricultural supply response in Ethiopia

[摘要] This study had one major goal of measuring the responsiveness of agriculture topolicy and non-policy related events. This was divided into three major objectives,namely, the contribution of agriculture to overall GDP growth, the responsivenessof aggregate agriculture to policy and non-policy related events, and theresponsiveness of cereal producers to incentive changes.A number of econometrics procedures were employed to achieve the objectives ofthis study which ranged from simple descriptive statistic techniques to advancedtime series econometrics. One of these methods introduced an improvement to theconventional method of tests on the data generating process when a series ischaracterized by a break. In addition, due to lack of available econometrics orstatistical packages tailored to achieving specific needs of this study, two computerprograms were developed. The first program was used to decompose changes inthe mean and variance of cereal production into four and ten component partsrespectively. The second program was used to extract cycles from agriculturalGDP and to determine periods of cyclical fluctuations.The following were major findings of this study with regards to the first majorobjective: much of the growth in overall GDP has been the result of growth in themanufacturing and the services sectors; structural transformation has not yet beenattained; and the contribution of agriculture in stimulating growth in other sectors ofthe economy has been positive in economic systems and policy environmentswhere agriculture has been allowed to operate freely.The following were the major findings of the study with regards to the secondobjective. The responsiveness of aggregate agriculture has so far been affectedmore by natural factors such as drought and fluctuations in aggregate agricultureare cyclical. The latter was attributed to weather variability. With regards to thethird objective, the following were found: the crop sub-sector is responsive, thecountry is increasingly becoming food insecure as a result of the susceptibility 0:.the crop sub-sector to changes in weather patterns.The following are the recommendations of this study. Agricultural Development LedIndustrialization strategy (ADLI) is the current development strategy of the country.For this strategy to achieve its short-and long-term objectives, the followingmeasures are recommended. First, problems associated with state ownership ofland should be harnessed. Second, market improvement and infrastructuraldevelopment must be integral parts of the development planning process. Third,agriculture should be freed from policy constraints. Fourth, macro-policy reformsand efforts that enhance the responsiveness of agriculture at various stages shouldbe encouraged. Fifth, agricultural research and agricultural extension capacity ofthe country must be encouraged to increase the supply of new drought varieties tomitigate the effect of drought on the instability of crop production.

[发布机构] University of the Free State