Economic analysis of land use: the case of East Hararghe administrative zone in Ethiopia

[摘要] This study aimed at developing and applying a methodology for land use analysis throughlooking for a form of land use that provides sufficient and rising incomes to the agriculturalpopulation of East Hararghe Administrative Zone, and at the same time maintains theproductive capacity as well as other environmental services of the land resources of thezone.The study starts with the elaboration of the problem statement, objectives, hypothesis andsignificance of the study. This is followed by the explanation of the approaches pursuedin conducting the present study. The study area is also thoroughly described. Theproblem statement and the objectives of the study indicate that there exists a huge gapbetween zonal crop production and the population growth despite a substantial expansionof eropland in the zone. This implies the existence of numerous set backs in the land usesystem of the zone and necessitated a close investigation of the land use systems of thefarming community of the study area in order to come up with an improved and efficientland use pattern that will overcome the acute land shortages as compared to the everincreasingpopulation of East Hararghe Administrative Zone.The most important findings and results of this study are based on the literature study; thedevelopment of the research methodology; the description of the surveyed data that isobtained through questionnaire survey; and the analysis of the land use model of thestudy area. Land resource and land use was assessed from a global point of view. Theproblems that are associated with the use of the land resource in the developing countrieswere investigated. An extensive study was also carried out to introduce the agriculturalsector of Ethiopia. The agricultural sector in Ethiopia is almost entirely dominated bysmall-scale, resource-poor farmers who produce 90 to 95 percent of all agriculturaloutputs. The role of economics within land use analysis is also reviewed. This role iselaborated through the discussion of a skeletal model of the agricultural sector; theconcepts of regional agricultural planning, land evaluation and farming system analysis;the concepts of resource economics and land economics; and the issues of property rightsand sustainable development.A linear programming model for the economic appraisal of the land use in the study areawas presented following the description of the conceptual framework of the model. Thedifferent parts of the zonal linear programming model were discussed under the headingsof objectives, variables and constraints. This was followed by the general formulation ofthe land use model of the zone called EASTHAR. The matrix of the model includes threesub-matrices each representing a different farm type. The farm types are distinguished onthe basis of agro-ecological classification of the surveyed districts and peasant associations.The EASTHAR model was analyzed by using the GAMS software after it wasextensively written in the GAMS programming language.Three land use scenarios are analysed to assess the effects of changes in factors thatinfluence land use decisions and whether incomes of farms (fan increase through animproved land use. The results of the base scenario indicated that the incomes of farmscan increase with improved land use pattern as the value of the objective function, or theeconomic surplus, is positive for the entire zone and for the different farm types. Themodel showed, how land has to be assigned to the different crops at zonal level and ateach farm types level for maximizing farm incomes under proper and improved resourceuse. The most important staple food crops of the population of the zone are allincorporated in the optimum land use and the potential for specialization that can existamong the different farm types of the zone has also been indicated.A comparison of the results of the base scenario with the results of an opportunity costscenario represented an important outcome of the model. The zonal economic surplus inthe opportunity cost scenario is 33% lower than the base scenario. The valuation of theon-farm household labour thus has a negative effect on the incomes of the farmhouseholds. However, land use as well as labour, current input and draft power uses didnot change from that of the base scenario. This shows that the mere valuation of the onfarmhousehold labour will not automatically disturb land use decisions.An interesting outcome was observed when comparing the results of the base scenariowith the results of a scenario of an assumed drought condition. The drought case scenarioanalyzes the consequences for land use in case drought occurs in the study area. Droughtis a recurring problem of Ethiopians especially the rural population. The results of theanalysis indicated that almost every land use defining variable was subject to changewhen drought occurs. According to these results, in a subsistence agriculture which issolely rain fed, a decline in the annual rainfall will undoubtedly lead to large reductionsin the income of the farming population.Based on the results of the study important policy recommendations were outlined. Theimplementation of the envisaged improved land use patterns can have important impactin altering the poor income earning capacity of the farm households in the zone and havea better environmental impact. For farmers to produce the amount of grains required forhome consumption and ensure their food security, there is a need to subsidize them to theamount of their lost gross margins during drought periods. Farmers must also beencouraged to save and have financial reserves for unforeseen adverse productionconditions through the establishment of appropriate saving institutions to limit thesubsidy. It may also be necessary for the government to approach donors to contribute tothe subsidy, as this contribution will hopefully be lower than the cost of food aid inmonetary terms. However, the dependence on food aid cannot be a preferable alternativeand to supply enough food to the growing population of the region more food needs to beproduced by the zone itself. This is because although other zones can produce foodcheaply, for subsistence farmers who are producing crops mainly for home consumption(and not for the market) it is extremely hard (if not impossible) to engage in trade andrely on outputs produced in other zones.

[发布机构] University of the Free State