The use of operational weather and climate information in farmer decision making exemplified for the South Western Free State, South Africa

[摘要] This study demonstrates that participating commercial and resource poor farmers used weatherforecasts and climate predictions for agriculture and other science-based agrometeorologicaladvisories during most of the study period. The study took place in the south-western Free State,synonymously used in this study as Modder/Riet catchment, which encompasses two districtsMotheo and Lejweleputswa. It was found that most farmers in the south-western Free Stateoriginally were not familiar with such agrometeorological products but relied on their experienceand traditional knowledge for farming decision-making. Most commercial farmers, having moreresources, performed better compared to the resource poor farmers.The thesis especially exemplifies case studies linking science-based products/advisories andproblem solving in the agricultural production environment for various farmers, where applicablethrough extension intermediaries. This particularly contributed to increasing the useful operationalapplicability of weather science, climate science and various fields of agricultural sciences. Thismust be seen as a contribution to science itself.The analytical results from questionnaires conducted in 2008 and 2012, with partly overlappingfarmers, indicated that farmers in the south-western Free State differ in agricultural practices,interests, needs, experience and skills. Therefore, provision of tailor-made products forrespectively crop production, animal husbandry, agroforestry and veld management is needed.Such agrometeorological information/advisories and, where people can assist to establish them,services can be disseminated by sending them to key communication outlets that are readily usedby most people such as television, freely available local newspapers, local radio, bulletins, wardcommittees, extension forums and early warning committees. Cell phones can be used where themessage may have limited size. The agrometeorological details should entail relevant and specificproducts that are directly useful to the farmers, and the latter should be able to interact with thesources. For all farmers in the Free State to embrace the use of agrometeorological knowledge andunderstanding would ideally require the interaction with well-trained extension agents.The study groups presented a very diverse situation in terms of experiences, challenges and needsthat are related to their farming. The consequences of increasing climate variability needed greateremphasis as to farmer's ability to develop on-farm coping strategies and interventions. Asuccessful farmer should understand the local trends in climate change and how agriculturaloutcomes are influenced. For example, the concept of response farming prepares the farmer to beaware of past and future climatic conditions and of the extent of increasing climate variability andrelated dangers and interventions to reduce vulnerabilities. The study also identified potentialproduction areas for vegetables, herbs/spices, grain food, oil seeds, fruits and other products suchas cotton and other fibers. Application of crop models such as Ehler's model and Eco-Crop 2revealed the thermal and water requirements of these crops which are either fully or partially metin various parts of the catchment. Agricultural production in some parts of the study area can be optimal under supplementary irrigation and where soil requirements are suitable. Analyzed long termrainfall data assisted the farmers to select suitable crops for the area for diversification andsequential planting and determining the suitable planting dates and planting densities. Cropmodels were used to generate and evaluate a series of management practice scenarios. Theseoutputs from the analyzed climate data and crop models were used to develop advisories that weretailor-made for the farmers. The decision trees handled in the last Appendix were also used todevelop alternatives of agricultural management practices for different seasonal climaticconditions.The majority of farmers in the south-western Free State prior to this study regularly experienceddevastating disasters that were weather and climate related, such as rainfall scarcity and rainfallirregularity, floods, untimely frost events, wind storms that also perpetuated destructive wildfires,outbreaks of diseases and pests, uncontrollable weeds which required intensive labour, severedrought conditions and overgrazed grazing lands. Weather forecasts and climate predictions foragriculture and other science-based agrometeorological advisories should be used to guide thefarmers in terms of which response actions/decisions on agricultural activities to take under theabove conditions and this way to reduce risks. Such agrometeorological products should serve acrucial role in strengthening sound decision-making and sustainable food security.Farmers used weather-related indicators in their traditional forecasting (mostly of rains anddroughts) such as animal behavior, appearance of certain bird species, sprouting of aloe and otherindigenous trees, accumulation of clouds, cloud types, appearance of certain insects, starconstellation, shape of the moon and wind speed and direction. Agricultural decisions were madeaccording to such traditional knowledge and understanding of environmental conditions of theirlocal area obtained through years of experience. Understanding of the farmer's perception onclimate is a critical step to facilitate effective communication on agrometeorologicalinformation/advisories/services.The tendency of scientists to develop knowledge for journals in the library that does not reach anyend-users should be changed. It is therefore the responsibility of researchers and intermediaries toensure that farmers have access to quality agrometeorological products for the betterment ofagriculture in the Republic of South Africa at large. The study divulged a noticeable gap betweenthe producers (universities/research institutes/weather services and other environmental services)and suppliers (broadcasters, extension officers, other intermediaries) ofinformation/advisories/services while the users are in bitter need of agrometeorological productsfor improved on-farm decision-making.Participation of farmers in a series of monthly innovative workshops created a conduciveenvironment for information exchange and training. It is advisable to conduct on-farm visits priorto the workshop/meeting days for proper preparations. This was to ensure that the monthlyworkshops were well-planned, productive and informative events. The manner in which this studywas structured enhanced a bottom-up approach since it allowed participative approaches in closecontact with the study groups, improving farming development by closing the gaps existingbetween developers, suppliers and users of agrometeorological knowledge and understanding.This study can recommend that participatory interaction with the farmers using focus groups, buzzquestions, word of mouth, study groups and workshops allows two-way participation. This helpsto understand the user's perception of the advisories, it allows a platform for constructive criticismthat should lead to improvement of products and introduction of actual services, which are userfriendly and translated into vernacular languages. The best outcome of this study was that farmerslearnt new things and shared their information and experience. This farmer to farmer extensionshould be recommended for reaching the highest number of farmers in an area. The remainingchallenge for agrometeorological advisories/services providers is to supply reliable and skilledforecasts/predictions and other science based information for agriculture through disseminationmethods that suit the farmer such as already mentioned above.

[发布机构] University of the Free State