Teaching Bayesian Statistics To Intelligence Analysts: Lessons Learned

[摘要] The Community must develop and integrate into regular use new toolsthat can assist analysts in filtering and correlating the vast quantities of information that threaten to overwhelm the analytic process…Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United StatesRegarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (The WMD Report)1Unlike the other social sciences and, particularly, the physical sciences, where scientists get to choose the questions they wish to answer and experiments are carefully designed to confirm or negate hypotheses, intelligence analysis requires analysts to deal with thedemands of decision makers and estimate the intentions of foreign actors, criminals or business competitors in an environment filled with uncertainty and even deliberate

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] Intelligence analysis;Intelligence studies/education;Methodology;Security studies