The role of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in conflict resolution : the case of Zimbabwe from 2002 to 2014

[摘要] The aim of this study is an examination of the Southern African DevelopmentCommunity's (SADC) conflict resolution role (through multilateral mediation) in theZimbabwe conflict and to determine how this role impacted on the development andoutcome of the conflict. The underlying problem is not so much the intervention ofSADC but the process and impact thereof. The primary research question is: Wouldthe events in Zimbabwe and the outcome of the 'Zimbabwe-problem' have beensubstantially different without the involvement and conflict resolution role of SADC?This question is underpinned by two subsidiary questions: Firstly, what was the conflictmanagement role, including that of conflict resolution, that SADC played? Secondly,did this role contribute to a positive outcome by overcoming limitations and how? Inresponse the argument is that SADC, despite institutional limitations and operationalconstraints, played a positive role that prevented an escalation of the conflict andthat contributed to a de-escalation thereof on account of its mediation.The study includes a framework for analysis to explore the conflict resolution role ofa regional organisation in intra-state (domestic) conflict; a contextualisation ofSADC's role with reference to the nature, scope and development of the 'Zimbabweproblem'as conflict; the analysis of the conflict resolution role through SADCmediation; and an evaluation of key findings as a basis for policy and researchrecommendations. The study is demarcated in conceptual, temporal and geopoliticalterms. At a conceptual level, the key variables are conflict, conflict resolution and therole of international (regional) organisations. In terms of time-frame, the study covers the period from 2002 to 2014. The commencement year of 2002 is based on theconstitutional and humanitarian crises that emerged and necessitated SADCintervention. The concluding year of 2014 marks the first full year since the end ofthe Global Political Agreement's (GPA) Government of National Unity (GNU) andallows for a retrospective assessment of the outcome(s) of SADC's role. The noncomparativecase study focuses on Zimbabwe as the national-level and SADC asthe regional-level (Southern African) units of analysis. The research design is that ofa historical case study and entails a critical literature-documentary analysis.Although SADC's initial response and involvement was delayed and limited, itdeveloped into a concerted mediation effort and a dedicated conflict resolution role.This role, despite limitations and constraints, overcame challenges and produced asettlement agreement. It is evident that events in Zimbabwe and the outcome of the'Zimbabwe-problem' would have been substantially different and undeniably moredetrimental (even disastrous) not only to Zimbabwe but also to the SouthernAfrican region without SADC's involvement and conflict resolution role. Its interventioncontributed to the de-escalation of the conflict and to acceptable levels of stability(unstable peace) in the region and within the country. A retrospective and diachronicassessment confirms a relative improvement in political, economic and social conditions(if juxtaposed with the first decade of the 2000s. This, however, does not imply atermination of the conflict and the existence of stable peace. The residue ofdissatisfaction produced by the GPA; the prevailing electoral and constitutionalcontestation; and the authoritarian and repressive regime trends still apparent inZimbabwe attest to continued latent and manifest conflict. This confirms the tenetthat intra-state conflict is never really terminated, seldom resolved but only managedin an effective manner to produce a minimally acceptable outcome of unstable peace.

[发布机构] University of Pretoria