Analysis of partner turnover rate and the lifetime number of sexual partners in Cape Town using generalized linear models

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT :A large number of analyses have been carried out to investigate how sexually activepeople contracted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by using common indicatorslike the number of new sexual partners in a given year and the lifetime number of partners.In this study, the objective is to show that these are not always good indicatorsbecause what people report for these two indicators is not accurate nor consistent usinggeneralized linear models such as Poisson and the negative binomial regression models.Generalized linear models are the types of models that allows for the distribution of theresponse variable to be non-normal. A cross-sectional, sexual behavioural survey wasconducted in communities with a high prevalence of HIV in Cape Town, South Africa,in 2011 – 2012. We examined the effects of age and gender on the rate at which sexualpartnerships are formed, using count data regression models. The age range of respondentswas 16-40 years. The highest number of new sexual relationships formed in a yearpreceding the survey was 11 and the highest lifetime number of sexual partners was 15.A generalized linear regression model was used to examine the consistency between thereported number of new sexual partners formed in a year preceding the survey and thereported lifetime number of partners. We also assessed the predictive power of thesetwo indicators for the respondent's HIV status. We found that these indicators are notconsistent, and we conclude that they are not good indicators for predicting HIV status.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University