A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In chaotic maintenance environments, executing planned maintenance becomesdifficult because the need for immediate corrective action escalates. Reverting back from a poor system state to a stable and well maintained one is a challenge. Railway track environments are prone to system degradation and poor maintenance. They are, therefore, in need of analytical tools to 'get on track'with maintenance.A risk-based method which grades track corridors between train stations according to their level of risk was developed. To achieve this, both the likelihoodand the severity components of risk were considered. The likelihood component of risk in the track environment is the reliability of track. Reliabilitywas calculated by quantifying track failure modes first and then analysing the characteristics of failures for each track corridor. Probabilistic modelswere generated from repairable systems reliability theory from which reliability predictions were made. The severity component of risk is the average delayhistorically experienced by each track corridor. A risk matrix was developed which brings together likelihood and severity components of risk for each trackcorridor. Maintenance prioritisation is possible from the risk rankings created by the matrix. The risk rankings for five track corridors were validated whena condition-based track maintenance tool, TQI, was in agreement.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University