The macro-economic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT:South Africa faces one of the world's most severe HIV/AIDS epidemics. Whereas thedisease was initially only regarded as a serious health crisis, it is now clear that the epidemicwill also have economic repercussions. The objective of this study is to project the extent of themacro-economic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa over the next 10 to 15 years.The study commences with a discussion of the key characteristics of HIV/AIDS andthe current status of the epidemic in South Africa. The demographic inputs used are based onprojections produced by the HIV/AIDS model of Metropolitan Life (the Doyle model). Themethodology and key assumptions behind the Doyle model are described briefly, after whichthe demographic projections are presented and discussed.The paper contains a summary of previous approaches to modelling the economicimpact of HIV/AIDS, as well as a presentation and discussion of their simulation results. Inreviewing the available literature on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS, it becomes apparentthat researchers have not yet reached consensus on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS inSouth Africa - estimates of the impact on GDP growth range anywhere between a reduction of0.3 and 2.0 percentage points over the next 10 to 15 years.The approach that is used in modelling the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in thisstudy comprises the following: Firstly, a no-AIDS forecast of the South African economy isgenerated using the annual macro-econometric forecasting model of the Bureau for EconomicResearch. Secondly, the channels through which the epidemic would likely impact on theeconomy are identified and modelled. These include slower growth in the population and thelabour force; higher employee benefit contributions by employers and employees; indirectcosts to the private and public sectors (e.g. lower productivity and higher recruitment andtraining costs); and higher health and welfare expenditure by the government, as well as anincrease in tax rates. The economic effects of each impact channel are analysedindependently, after which the different impact channels are combined in the model for theaggregated AIDS inclusive simulation. The results are presented in the form of comparisonsbetween no-AIDS and AIDS projections for key economic variables for the period 2001 to2015. The paper also contains results from a macro-economic sensitivity analysis, in whichseven of the key assumptions are altered in order to test the sensitivity of the model to thesechanges.Simulation results indicate that the epidemic will have a negative impact oneconomic growth in South Africa - real GDP growth could fall from a projected average of3.7% over the period 2002-2015 without HIV/AIDS to between 3.4% and 3.1 % per year withHIV/AIDS. In contrast, real per capita GDP growth is projected to be 0.7 to 1.0 percentagepoints higher compared to a no-AIDS scenario, as the adverse impact of the epidemic on thepopulation will outweigh the negative impact on real GDP.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University