Quantitative Modelling Methods for the Incorporation of Uncertainty into Construction Project Estimates

[摘要] Most construction projects do not complete exactly as scheduled or exactly as priced.During the implementation of a project there is almost certainly some deviation from theoriginal estimate. The implementation of a majority of projects has actually been shownto cost more and take longer than originally estimated. However, the duration and costperformance of a project's implementation is measured against the initial estimateproduced. Thus if a project is considered to have completed late or over budget thenessentially the duration or cost estimated was insufficient.Due to the fact that estimates are produced in a present day environment for inherentlyunique projects that occur in uncertain future environments, the estimates produced willneed to incorporate uncertainty to increase their likelihood of achievability.This study aims to derive methods to incorporate future uncertainty into projectestimates. This uncertainty is incorporated, analysed and manipulated through the useof Probabilistic models and First Order Second Moment Reliability methods. The derivedmethods provide project management professionals with tools that enable them todesign estimates that incorporate future uncertainty and are reliable to a specifieddegree. Further methods are then derived to probabilistically assess the commercialfeasibility of a project in an uncertain future environment.These derived methods then provide project managers and decision makers with morereliable procedures and information which in turn should assist them in making correct,project orientated decisions and ultimately increase profit reliability and clientsatisfaction.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University