Modelling water-borne infections : the impact of hygiene, metapopulation movements and the biological control of cholera

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Water-borne infections have been a menace in many countries around the globe, claimingmillions of lives. Cholera in particular has spread to all continents and now on its seventhepidemic. Although control measures have been continually developed through sanitation,vaccination and rehydration, the infection still devastates populations whenever there is anoutbreak. In this research work, mathematical models for cholera transmission dynamicswith focus on the impact of sanitation and hygiene, metapopulation spread, optimal controland biological control using a bacteriophage specific for pathogenic Vibrio cholerae areconstructed and analysed. Vital analyses for the models are precisely given as well as numericalresults depicting long term behaviour and the evolution of populations over time.The results of our analysis indicate that; improved sanitation and hand-hygiene are vital inreducing cholera infections; the spread of disease across metapopulations characterised byexchange of individuals and no cross community infection is associated with synchronousfluctuation of populations in both adjacent communities; during control of cholera, the controlmeasures/efforts ought to be optimal especially at the beginning of the epidemic wherethe outbreak is often explosive in nature; and biological control if well implemented wouldavert many potential infections by lowering the concentration of pathogenic vibrios in theaquatic environment to values lower than the infectious dose.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University