Intractability of conflict : causes, drivers and dynamics of the war in Somalia

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Somalia has experienced constant instability and conflict for nearly two decades. With a collapsedstate, widespread violence and criminal activity, as well as continued disagreement betweenwarring factions, the prospect of peace seems bleak. The purpose and rationale of this researchhas been to critically examine root causes and perpetuating factors of the protracted war inSomalia in order to arrive at a comprehensive analysis of the reasons for the intractability of thisconflict. This study aims to fill a gap in the literature by pointing to some elements which havepreviously been overlooked in existing research on the topic, especially the impact of the wareconomy on the fuelling of the conflict.While the thesis first and foremost set out to identify factors which contribute to the intractabilityof conflict in Somalia, a thorough conceptualisation of relevant theory and a historical overviewof the case study were provided as a point of departure. An analysis then followed which tiedtheory to empirical data. According to my analysis, the most significant internal factorscontributing to intractability of conflict in Somalia were the long absence of a central governingauthority, the low level of economic development, the role of Islam, as well as particular choicesmade by the parties to the conflict. Relational factors which are crucial are the similar militarystrength of the opposing sides, their lack of cooperation, and their different views regarding thecountry's law and governance. Finally, external factors were deemed to have had a particularlystrong effect on the long war. Ethiopia's constant meddling; Eritrea's support of al-Shabaab; theUN's and the AU's various missions; as well as the presence of a plethora of humanitarian aidagencies have shaped the conflict throughout its course.The conclusion was drawn that the war economy had the greatest impact on conflict in the firstrounds of the civil war, but with the transformation, re-escalation and re-intensification of theconflict that has occurred over the last couple of years, the opportunities for benefiting from warand instability may again have increased. Piracy stands out as a new, prominent pillar of thecontemporary war economy. The war economy of today continues to have an influence on theSomali conflict; it adds to its intractability, makes it increasingly difficult to establish a legitimateand stable non-corrupt government, and generally sustains violence in the country.I suggest that further research be undertaken on the topic of state collapse in Somalia, as it is clearthat the long absence of a central government is a factor which has had a significant impact on theprolongation of conflict. In addition, as accurate data on the current war economy is rare, I recommend that field research should be conducted in Somalia to gain a more preciseunderstanding of shadowy economic activities and their linkages to conflict.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University