System dynamics simulation of income distribution and electric vehicle diffusion for electricity planning in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The electricity generation industry has developed a symbiotic interdependence with thesocial, environmental, economic and political ecologies in the country, resulting indivergent complexities, which require non-linear model-based planning methodologies.Some of the determinants influencing the power industry include technologies, such asbattery electric vehicles (BEVs), which have gained prominence as a possible option tosupport South Africa's climate change commitments. This study used an adaptedsystem dynamics modelling process to determine the provincial affordability of BEVs inSouth Africa so that amended regional forecasts of BEVs could be established to planfor charging infrastructure, environmental impacts in the energy and transport sectors,as well as changes in electricity consumption. Results from the Electricity StrategicBattery Electric Vehicle (E-StratBEV) simulator indicate that aligning BEV marketpenetration with the current consumer behaviour within deciles on vehicle expenditure,results in significantly lower than the expected market penetration. This means that by2040, a low growth GDP-based target of 233,700 BEVs could adjust to 44,155 BEVs,while a high growth scenario of 2,389,950 BEVs (based on South Africa's commitmentin the Paris Agreement) could adjust to 451,736 BEVs. The inclusion of BEV drivers, such as reduced purchase price, increased charging infrastructure, reduced 'rangeanxiety, and improved reputation effect, add a further cumulative total of 270 GWhfrom 2019 until 2040 for the low growth scenario, and an additional 2,764 GWh for thehigh growth scenario, to the residential electricity consumption. From 2019 to 2040, arenewables heavy supply mix results in a 7% cumulative decrease in CO2 emissions inthe transport sector; however, with a coal heavy supply mix, no gains in carbonemission reduction is achieved. The adapted system dynamics modelling processallowed for the successful development and implementation of the E-StratBEV,however, the process can be further enhanced by establishing preliminary complexitycriteria to ensure a project requires this method before commencement.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University