Study into the viability of e-mobility and requirements for the strategic roll out of electric vehicles in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The electrification of transportation through the introductionofelectricvehiclesintheSouthAfricanmarketcanpotentiallyreduceoildependencyandleadtothepossiblereductionofcarbonfootprintsthroughlowerannualCO2emissionrates.ThekeyquestionisiftheintroductionofelectricmobilitywillbefinanciallyviableinSouthAfricaand,ifso,whatbusinessmodelshouldbefollowed.Toanswerthisquestioncostanalysisandtotalcostofownershipcalculationshavebeenmodelledbasedon8scenarios.Allscenariosconsistedofdifferentvariablesinordertoidentifythekeyvariablesaffectingthefinancialviabilityofe-­‐mobility.GlobalmarketforecastsandgovernmentalincentivesandtheeffectofitonthetotalcostofownershiphavebeenresearchedandcomparedtoproposedSouthAfricanincentivesbytheDTI.Batteryrechargingtechniquesanddifferentbatteryandvehicletypeshavebeenevaluated.Furthermore,theimpactonthenationalgridhasbeenstudied,aswellasthepotentiale-­‐mobilityvaluechainandtheassociateddirectjobcreation.Thefindingsinthisthesisillustratethattheintroductionofe-­‐mobilitycanbeviableifitisbasedonamodel2basedbusinessmodel.Earlyadopterswillpreferablyuselevel2homechargingintheintroductorystage.Thecommencementofdemonstrationprojectsistoshedmorelightonuncertaintiesandtoovercomepotentiallimitationsbygatheringthedesirabledataandvaluableinsightsregardingdrivingandchargingpreferencesandhabits.Costanalysishasshownthatthebiggestaspectsaffectingthetotalcostofownershipareinitialbatterycosts,batterypricereduction,andvehicleacquisitioncosts,whileoperatingcostarepredominantlyrelyingonthedifferencebetweenfuelandenergyprices.Theanalysishasshownthatgovernmentalincentivesdon'tsignificantlyaffecte-­mobility'sviability.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University