The illicit arms trade in states in transition : a comparative study of South Africa and Croatia

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research study aims to analyze the illicit arms trade in states in transition. While both the study of the illicit arms trade and the study of states in transition per se, are characterized by a variety of concepts and debates within academia, this study attempts to establish a coherent and concise connection between the two. Therefore, the main research question is: How do the capacity gaps of social control, social welfare, border control and legitimacy contribute to the proliferation of the illicit arms trade in states in transition?For the purpose of this study, the researcher uses the theoretical framework based on capacity gaps and functional holes as outlined by Phil Williams (2002). Williams (2002) states that organized crime and transnational organized crime (TOC), which the illicit arms trade is a part of, flourish in states that are weakened by capacity gaps and where the accompanying functional holes open up the way for organized crime and TOC to work with impunity. The seven capacity gaps that Williams (2002) outlines are: social control, social welfare, business regulation, oversight and accountability, border control, legitimacy and electoral norms and patterns. However, this thesis does not focus on all seven capacity gaps; instead, only the capacity gaps of social control, social welfare, border control and legitimacy are analysed. This decision has been based on the literature by Williams (2002), Migdal (1988), Beck and Laeven (2006), who suggest that a state in transition cannot complete its transitional period and become a consolidated democracy if high levels of social control, social welfare, respect for the rule of law and legitimacy are not obtained.Moreover, this research study conducts a comparative analysis of two states in transition, South Africa and Croatia, which have both been experiencing difficulties with TOC and the illicit arms trade, and where both states still have not completed their transitional period, and are thus not consolidated democracies. This research does not imply that the findings of this study are applicable to all states in transition; the focus is rather on how the four capacity gaps and functional holes that this research focused on contribute to the proliferation of the illicit arms trade in South Africa and Croatia. The findings indicate that due to high levels of corruption within the judicial system and police, the citizens of South Africa and Croatia lack trust in the states' capacity to impose social control, which in turn opens the way for organized criminal groups to work with impunity. Furthermore, the social welfare capacity gap contributes to the rise in levels of organized crime and the illicit arms trade due to the fact that levels of inequality and unemployment force the citizens of South Africa and Croatia to look for alternative survival strategies, usually those that organized criminal groups can provide them with. Moreover, the lack of resources and corruption among custom officials and police staff, serve as opportunities for organized criminal groups to traffic illicit goods over South Africa and Croatia's borders; thus indicating a functional hole in the states interdictory capacity and an overall gap in the states capacity to control its borders. Lastly, due to the South African and Croatian citizens' lack of trust in the institutions and the state apparatus in general, the capacity gap of legitimacy is visible. This in turn opens the way for organized criminal groups to use patron-client relationships with the citizens of South Africa and Croatia, in order to build and sustain a level of popular legitimacy that the state is lacking.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University