Intelligence analysis in the knowledge age : an analysis of the challenges facing the practice of intelligence analysis

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT:The intelligence community throughout the world is still reeling after several intelligencefailures. Proposals to improve Intelligence Analysis have had little impact as analysts, theirmanagers and their organisations continue to cling to outdated threat perceptions,methodologies and organisational structures and cultures. This thesis looks through the lens ofKnowledge Management at the various challenges that the Intelligence Analysis practice isfaced with in the Knowledge Age. Firstly, theories and concepts from Intelligence Analysisare challenged when compared with those in Knowledge Management and the possibility ofapplying new vocabularies in intelligence is discussed. The second challenge intelligenceanalysts face is to understand and adapt to the changed world with its connected, non-linearand rapidly enfolding events and patterns which broadens their scope to a multi-faceted,complex and multi-disciplinary threat picture. The third challenge is to re-look the existinganalytical methodologies, tools and techniques, realising that these are most probablyinadequate in a complex environment. The fourth challenge Intelligence Analysis faces is toreach out to other disciplines and assess how new analytical techniques, both intuitive andstructured, as well as cognitive models, collaborative and organisational structure conceptsfrom within the Knowledge Management discipline can improve Intelligence Analysis' graspof the Knowledge Age. In conclusion, it is argued that intelligence analysts might be ready toreinvent themselves to address Knowledge Age issues, but that intelligence organisations arenot able to support a new intelligence paradigm while still clinging to threat perceptions andstructures befitting the Cold War.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University