The development of an integratedeffectiveness model for aerial targets

[摘要] During the design or acquisition of missile systems the effectiveness of the system needs to beevaluated. Often actual testing is not possible and therefore mathematical models need to beconstructed and solved with the aid of software. The current simulation model is investigated,verified, and a mathematical model to aid in the design of the detonic payload, developed. Theproblem is confined to the end-game scenario with the developed simulation model focusingon the last milliseconds before warhead detonation. The model, that makes use of the raytracingmethodology, models the warhead explosion in the vicinity of a target and calculates theprobability of kill for the specific warhead design against the target. Using the data generated bythe simulation model, the warhead designer can make the necessary design changes to improvethe design. A heuristic method was developed and is discussed which assists in this designprocess. There is, however, a large population of possible designs. Meta-heuristic methodsmay be employed in reducing this population and to help confine the manual search to aconsiderably smaller search area. A fuze detection model as well as the capability to generatetruly random intercept scenarios was developed as to enable employment of meta-heuristicsearch methods. The simulation model, as well as design optimising technology, has successfullybeen incorporated into a Windows based software package known as EVA (The Effectivenessand Vulnerability Analyser).

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University