The application of decision support systems in the Eritrean public sector

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT:The traditional skills required in government-wide local knowledge, sound politicaljudgment and concern for the welfare of people-are still essential in the global informationsociety. But, to be more effective, these skills now have to be supported by the newdecision-making techniques of operations research and decision support systems. Thecapacity of the human mind to handle complex issues is limited. This situation ofcomplexity and incapacity makes the application of operations research techniques andelectronic DSS essential for good governance outcomes.Operations research is a multidisciplinary discipline that requires a team approach todecision making. It is based on systems analysis approach because of its preoccupation withinterconnections among parts rather than within the parts themselves. This systemsapproach allows the optimization of an organization's overall goals, not just those ofisolated departments.Optimization is one of the functions of operations research techniques. Linear programmingmodels are most effective at the operational level of decision making with a single objectivewhere scarce or limited resources must be allocated or used in an optimal manner. At thepolicy level where there are many uncertainties and conflicting objectives, multiobjectiveprogramming is more suitable. On the other hand, dynamic programming is flexible and isparticularly applied whenever a sequence of decisions must be made and the goal is to findthe combination of decisions that optimizes the overall effectiveness of the entire set ofdecisions. However, when a problem is too complex to be treated by numerical optimizationtechniques, simulation is used. That is when the problem either cannot be formulated foroptimization, because the formulation is too large, there are too many interactions amongthe variables, or the problem is stochastic (probabilistic) in nature. Despite the analyticalpower of operations research, many real-world problems are not amenable to directanalytical solution by known mathematical techniques. Hence, in the absence of exactmethods to solutions, we usually resort to heuristics, i.e. finding a good but not necessarilythe best solution.Other problems encountered by public sector agencies include service stations (waitinglines), inventory levels, forecasting, and project scheduling, which all need decision supportsystems. To reduce the adverse impact of waiting to acceptable levels one has to minimize costs associated with providing service and those associated with waiting time. For smoothoperations, inventory of goods must be kept to an acceptable level to minimize setup orordering, inventory holding, and shortage (public complaints, and loss of good will andsales) costs. Forecasting is crucial as most managerial decisions are based on projectedinformation and policy analysis is almost always about future outcomes. Many governmentpolicies and programs are implemented through projects. Project managers must know howlong a specific project will take to finish, what the critical tasks are, and what theprobability of completing the project within a given time span is.Successful applications of operations research and decision support systems in the publicsector have been recorded including in the areas of the military, transportation, crime andjustice, police units, energy, natural resources, facility location, and land use planning.However, operations research applications are not without impediments. Technical andinstitutional barriers are some of the problems encountered in the effort to apply operationsresearch in the public sector. Similarly, reasons for the slow growth of decision supportsystems include lack of user demand, lack of system designer motivation, lack of systemdesigner expertise, reluctance to change, and increased risk of failureIn the Eritrean public sector, the low level of awareness of operations research and decisionsupport systems is reflected in the inadequacy of addressing multicriteria decisionprocesses, the lack and lor inappropriate selection of decision support systems, improperproject management techniques, suboptimal facility locations and service stations, the lowlevel of multidisciplinary approach, and the absence of national standards for pollutioncontrol. In general, constraints such as the lack of capacity, awareness, know-how, andsoftware, are rampant.The study concludes that policy-making processes should incorporate opportunities toexercise choices and explore rational options. These rational options are the results ofappropriate interface of human, operations research and decision support systems.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University