Infrastructure implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province of South Africa : a system dynamics modelling approach

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigated the infrastructure implications of a green economytransition in the Western Cape with particular focus on the transport sector.Within South African context, a green economy transition is recognised as one of the key pathways towards achieving an environmentally sustainable, resource efficient, low-carbon economy and just society. In response to the call of achieving a green economy transition, interdisciplinary, integrated approaches to the management and design of infrastructures across all sectors is required.This provided the backdrop in which the research took place and the reasons for this investigation being conducted.With the examination of various literature relating to transition theories and management practices involved in such a problem, an understanding of the complex systems involved in such a transition enabled an appropriate methodof analysis to be developed for the research problem. Utilising a system dynamics modelling approach, the research effort aimed to improve understanding,and develop the associated capacities, of how technical, economic, political, social and environmental factors interact, particularly in the context of theuncertainties encountered during this transition. A framework from which the processes and methods involved in the system dynamics technique was identified and described, including the manner in which the model was built and the theoretical grounds on which it stands. From this it was possible to illustrate the important relationships existing between various components of the system.The subsequent implications of the decisions to be made by managerial bodies with regards to the study were disclosed in the form of recommendations to the various stakeholders in order to aid the decision making process.The use of System Dynamics Modelling for the investigation of the infrastructure implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape provided a holistic manner in which to conceptualise and simulate the complexitiesof the problem. The ease of creation and its flexibility with regards to simulating dynamic behaviours made it a robust form of modelling. The key findings of the research indicated that through the investment into a better public transport system as well as shifting the movement of freight onto therail network there would be long term positive effects environmentally, socially and economically. These included reduced truck and private vehicle numbers on the roads resulting in better road conditions, lower traffic densities, lower CO2 emissions and reduced diesel and petrol demand within the province. The combination of the two major intervention strategies of public transport andrail freight yielded a significant reduction in emissions from the transport sector, of up to 17.89% compared to the business as usual scenario. Through the aid of simulation, decision-making based on accurate representations ofthe future effects of strategies was made possible. It can be concluded that reaching a sustainable green economy in the Western Cape is possible and the implications of such a transition on transport infrastructure are manageable and achievable through strategic development.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University