Modelling Drug Abuse and Drug-related Crime:A Systems Approach

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT : In this study we look at the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crime inthe Western Cape province of South Africa. The intent of this study is to provoke criticalthinking about the possibilities systems thinking and system dynamics posses forsocial and health challenges in a diverse and complex environment like that of SouthAfrica, especially the Western Cape. This study ventures into cross-discipline workbetween Epidemiology, Biomathematics and System Dynamics, with the hope of encouragingresearchers from different fields to collaborate in order to curb the scourge ofsubstance abuse and drug-related crime in South Africa. Substance abuse and the associatedhealth and social hazards such as drug-related crime is a major problem in theWestern Cape. Drug-related crime cases reported by the South African Police Services(SAPS) for the Western Cape exhibited a 311.5% growth in the past decade. This highlightshow the reduction of substance abuse and drug-related crime within theWesternCape province, will be an elixir for the safety and development of the communities. Thefight against substance abuse has been driven by a multi-sectorial approach involvingseveral government departments, non-governmental organisations and communities.With systems thinking the assumption is that the world is systemic, which means thatphenomena is understood to be an emergent property of the interrelated whole. Firstly,using non-linear ordinary differential equations, we formulate a deterministic mathematicalmodel for the substance abuse and drug-related crime syndemic, evaluate thethreshold number and use sensitivity analysis to analyze the model. Secondly, a dynamicsystem, called the Substance Abuse and Drug-related Crime in theWestern Cape(SADC-WC) system is constructed using the STELLA in order to explore and classify theunderlying relationships and structures within the substance abuse and drug-relatedcrime system. Both the sensitivity analysis, and the simulations of the SADC-WC systemindicate that an increase of successful convictions will have a significant influenceon the syndemic, and promise to reduce drug-related crime cases.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University