Uncertainty and private sector response to economic development policy in post-genocide Rwanda

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research explored factors underlying successful implementation of development policy. Itapplied new institutional economic analysis to policy-making processes viewed from thetheory, methodology and practice perspectives. Two important results came out of theanalysis. Firstly, policy performance depends on private actors' optimization processes thatmay or may not end up in conflict with the policy prescriptions. This constitutes a majorsource of uncertainty. Secondly, getting the policy content right is a necessary but notsufficient condition for success. How policy actions are delivered (implemented by privateagents) matters a lot. The policy maker is therefore invited to devise an appropriatemechanism design to that effect.The study proposes the Connectedness model as a normative methodology to minimizeuncertainty and increase the likelihood of policy success. The model was inspired by aretroductive inference from some Rwandan living experiments in policy management, whichhave assisted the country to quickly recover from the 1994 Genocide of the Tutsi and achievehigh economic performance in a record time. The Connectedness model defines four actors ofa policy process – the politician, the policy expert/bureaucrat, the changemanager/consciousness nurturer and the private actor– and describes the nature of interactionsbetween and among them susceptible to guarantee success. The more role players arecoordinated, share the same vision and implement consensus building mechanisms, the higherthe likelihood for the policy to deliver according to plans.The study proposes three recommendations. Firstly, further research is needed tooperationalize leadership, private sector spirit and connectedness institutions as endogenousvariables in the new growth theory models. Secondly, new methodologies are to be devised tocapture behaviour of individuals and the dynamic nature of policy making processes in macroeconomic modeling. Thirdly, economists and policy makers ought to value more thecontribution of social science disciplines such as sociology and psychology in gatheringevidence and tools to handle change effectively.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University