Farm modelling for interactive multidisciplinary planning of small grain production systems in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A complex and volatile decision-making environment and constant pressure on product prices, dueto the cost-price squeeze, complicates decision-making for grain farmers in the Western Cape.Furthermore, available alternative crops and cultivation practices are limited due to local soil andclimatic conditions. The farm system itself is complex due to the interdependence of a variety offactors and the synergy resulting from specific sequences of cash and pasture crops.The aim of this research project was to establish a method that would contribute to identifyingstrategies to advance the profitability of grain production. Research in the grain industry istraditionally specialised within specific fields, such as, agronomy, soil science, entomology,agricultural economics, etc., causing a fragmentation of knowledge. To ensure that the systemsnature of a complex farm is accommodated, various related research domains should beacknowledged and incorporated.The use of expert group discussions, as a research method, is suitable, firstly, for gatheringinformation in a meaningful manner and, secondly, to stimulate individual creativity by presentingalternative perspectives provided by various participating experts. In support of expert groupdiscussions, simulation models in the form of multi-period whole-farm models were developed.This type of modelling supports the accurate financial simulation of farms, while the user friendlinessand adaptability thereof can accurately accommodate typical farm interrelationships,and quickly measure the financial impact of suggested changes to parameters. Suggestions madeby experts during the group discussions can thus be quickly introduced into the model. Thefinancial implications are instantly available to prevent further exploration of non-viable plans andto fine-tune the viable plans. Participants in the group discussions represent fields of expertisesuch as agronomy, soil science, entomology, plant pathology, the agricultural chemical industry,agricultural mechanisation. Also represented are professionals such as extension officers fromlocal agribusinesses, local producers and agricultural economists. The dynamics of the groupdiscussions are supported by each participant's specific strengths and perspectives.For each relatively homogeneous production area of the Western Cape, a typical farm budgetmodel was developed, which served as the basis for the group discussions. The budget modelsmeasure profitability in terms of the IRR (internal rate of return on capital investment) andaffordability in terms of expected cash flow. For the Swartland, the homogeneous areas identifiedwere Koeberg/Wellington, the Middle Swartland and the Rooi Karoo, and for the Southern Cape,the homogenous areas identified were, the Goue Rûens, Middle Rûens and Heidelberg Vlakte. A model of a typical farm in the Wesselsbron area was developed for comparison with the WesternCape farms. For each area the expected impact of climate change, fluctuating product and inputprices, and the possible impact of partial conversion to bio-fuel production were evaluated in termsof expected impact on profitability. Various area-specific strategies were identified that couldenhance the profitability of grain production: most of the strategies focused on optimisingmachinery usage and expanding or intensifying the livestock enterprise. The repeated successfuluse of the model in support of the expert groups in all the chosen study areas illustrates the valuethereof for identifying and evaluating plans to increase the profitability of small grain production.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University