Probabilistic modelling of the evolution of ecological interaction networks

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In any ecological system, organisms need to interact with each other for their survival. Such interactions form ecological networks which are usually very complex. Nevertheless, theyexhibit well de ned patterns; these regularities are often interpreted as products of meaningfulecological processes. As the networks are evolving through time, biological evolutionis one of the factors that affects ecological network architecture. In this work, we develop amathematical model that represents the evolution through time of such ecological interactionnetworks. The problem is approached by modelling network evolution as a continuous timeMarkov process, in such a way that the interactions in which a parent species is involvedare potentially inherited by its descendant species. This approach allows us to infer ecologicalparameters and ecological network histories from real-world network data, as well asto simulate ecological networks under our model. While ecologists have long been aware ofthe in uence of evolutionary processes in shaping ecological networks, we are now able toevaluate the importance of such in uence.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University