Biofuel implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province of South Africa : a system dynamics modelling approach to biofuel

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates the implications of producing biofuel as part of a greeneconomy transition in the Western Cape Province of South-Africa. Biofuel production was identified as a complex system and different methodologies were reviewedto find the most appropriate technique to analyse complex systems. Systemynamics was identified and used to build a model simulating the effects and potentialof biofuel production within the Province, under certain project and policy onsiderations.The biofuel model was built with a generic structure that can simulate both bioethanol and biodiesel with different parameters. The model assumes a bioethanolplant, capable of producing 160 million litres per annum to be completed in 2018, using triticale as feedstock. A biodiesel plant with a capacity of 35 million litresper annum will also completed in 2018, using canola as production feedstock.Different scenarios regarding the energy use of biofuel production were simulated in order to evaluate the feasibility and identify the strategic intervention points, whichcould strengthen the business case of biofuel production. The national mandatory biofuel blending policy leads to alternative scenarios being simulated, in which theWestern Cape Province is externally supplied with biofuel. Recommendations are made on the best approach to follow for the Province to form part of the blendingpolicy, based on pre-determined indicators within the three pillars of sustainability, namely: the economy, environment and social considerations. From the model, itwas deduced that feedstock availability and the high capital and operating costs are the major constraining factors in biofuel production. Recommendations aremade to mitigate and improve the identified constraints.A feasible business case (operating without subsidy) was established for bioethanol production within the Province. Under the model assumptions for locally producingbioethanol (using biomass as energy source), an internal rate of return of 23% is estimated, while emissions are reduced by 63% when compared to using coal as theenergy source. A medium-large scale biodiesel production facility was not feasible (subsidy of R4.30 per litre) as the adverse effects of emissions and employment creationdoes not justify the high costs involved. Alternative biodiesel solutions are then proposed, like encouraging the establishment of numerous small-scale on-sitebiodiesel production facilities. In conclusion, the study limitations and recommendations for future research are discussed. The applicability and effectiveness ofusing system dynamics for this study is discussed and some recommendations are made to indicate the context in which system dynamics would best be applied.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University