A simulation model for evaluating the long-term financial impact of different wine grape production systems

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural production takes place in an uncertain and complex environment, withproduction the result of the culmination of a variety of factors within a greater system.Consequently, accounting for the influence of variables in the production system is very difficult,making it a daunting task for decision makers to make good decisions. In the wine grapeproduction context, this problem is accentuated due to the capital intensive and perennial natureof investments, also giving rise to a path dependency. As a result it is essential to makestrategically sound decisions in order to ensure the long-term profitability and financialfeasibility of wine grape production. Decision making tools, like a model, can be of invaluablesupport for strategic decision making. A model is used to simplify reality, by imitating andsimulating the actual system as closely as possible. A simulation model was therefore developedfor this thesis to be able to evaluate the long-term financial impact of different wine grapeproduction systems and to support strategic decision making. This model can be adapted toindividual farm specific features, scenarios and preferences, in the evaluation and analysis ofdifferent investment and wine grape production system decisions. For this study, the nature ofagricultural systems as well as qualities required by a simulation model, were investigated. Theformer is followed by an investigation of the effect of the grapevine and trellis specific qualitieson the possibilities of the production system, as well as the implication of capital budgeting andfinancing considerations on the performance of the wine grape production system. In view of theabove, the model was then applied to simulate and evaluate different wine grape productionsystems as well as a structural transition and expansion of wine grape production, for a simulatedfarm in the Breedekloof region, South Africa. The model can be used for decision making andscenario planning purposes by wine grape producers and stakeholders in the wine industry.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University