Estimating domestic outdoor water demand for residential estates

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The outdoor water consumption of residential properties is a major contributor to the seasonal fluctuation of the overall water consumption of these properties. The estimation of the relating outdoor water demand has become valuable to property developers and planners alike. This could enable designers to optimise designs of water distribution networks and assist in water resource planning and gaining legislative approvals. For the purposes of this study the outdoor water-use components were mathematically defined and combined to develop an outdoor water-demand model.In order to evaluate the results of an outdoor water demand model on a monthly temporal scale it was necessary to develop a proxy outdoor water consumption evaluation method based on the metered monthly consumption of residential properties. The method entailed verifying that the generally non-seasonal indoor water consumption as a function of the winter water consumption. This entailed analysis of the total monthly, indoor and outdoor water consumption data adopted from a noteworthy North American water end-use project. The indoor water consumption estimated in this manner could then be subtracted from the overall monthly water consumption to obtain estimated monthly outdoor water consumption data. The estimated outdoor consumption could be compared with the simulated outdoor water demand, as described by the model.The parameters that formed part of the mathematical outdoor water demand model were formulated from data available for residential estates, where conditions such as types of vegetation, irrigated area and size of pool could be prescribed in a constitution, usually instituted by a home owners association. The data was derived from one estate located in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The mathematical model was simulated using the Monte Carlo method and the @Risk software. Three residential estates located in South Africa were subsequently modelled. Additionally, the model was employed to estimate outdoor water demand for houses located in Northern America for verification purposes.The Monte Carlo simulations of the outdoor water demand model presented in this study yielded realistic results when compared with the proxy outdoor consumption figures as well as the metered actual outdoor water consumption data analysed. The peak monthly outdoor water demand estimation results were particularly close to the consumption data.This study serves as a baseline for further research into outdoor water demand. Research into the effects of water restriction and conservation potential could follow from this work, especially in today's environmentally conscious society.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University