Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size andeffectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

[摘要] References(39)Supplementary materials(1)The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species,influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact oflivestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For thissimulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japanas the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattleproduction area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy,only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area,whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics weresuccessfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in theCP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms,raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanieda large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccinationand 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemicswithin 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hrculling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a denselypopulated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important inplanning FMD control strategies.

[学科分类] 兽医学

[关键词] animal species;control measure;foot-and-mouth disease;livestock density;simulation model