A financial analysis of combining crop rotations systems with appropriate potential soils in the middle Swartland

[摘要] ENGLISH SUMMARY : The world's human population is exploding. Most of the growth is expected to happen in Africa. As a result the strain on natural resources will only increase, creating the need for sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security. Producers are the link between the environment and food production but they are also under pressure due to an increasing cost-price squeeze. Food security depends on sustainable producers and research and development must contribute towards lowering the cost-price squeeze and increased production. Conservation Agriculture (CA) in grain production is an ideal sustainable practice developed to increase yields, profitability and to protect the environment. CA is adopted all over the world, including South Africa, especially in the Western Cape.The adoption of CA in the Swartland is largely due to the lowering effect on the cost-price squeeze and more effective weed control through crop rotation. The Swartland region is the biggest wheat producing region in South Africa and plays an important role in the local and national economy. One of CA's main focus areas, crop rotation systems, is site-specific. Research in the Middle Swartland is based on the 20 year Langgewens research, a winter crop rotation trial. However, the trial research results leave a few concerns for Middle Swartland producers. The soil potential and mechanical needs for a typical farm varies from the trial research. In addition, the carrying capacity of pastures and the establishing cost of pastures are not entirely reflected in the research. The aim of this study is to overcome these concerns and thus focuses on soil potential, which varies from the trial. The Delphi research method was used to determine the properties of a typical Middle Swartland farm. The results indicate that a typical farm will have 35% high-, 45% medium- and 20% low potential soil with a lowering effect on yields and carrying capacities, depending on the soil potential. The Delphi results, other relevant sources and previous research were used to construct a whole farm budget model taking into account the concerns. The first task was to determine the most promising crop rotation system in terms of gross margin, cash flow and IRR (internal rate of return) when only implementing one crop rotation system on the whole farm, as mostly implemented by producers. System B (Canola, Wheat, Wheat, Wheat) showed the most promise. The second task was to determine the most promising crop rotation systems, when implemented on the different potential soils. System B showed the highest IRR for high- and medium potential soil, and System H (Wheat, Medics and Clovers, Wheat, Medics and Clovers with Saltbush) on low potential soil. The result of the mixed systems applied on the different potential soils was incorporated in one whole farm budget model with the same assumptions as for the case using only System B. The two alternatives were then put through a number of sensitivity tests/scenarios. The results indicated that combining crop rotation systems according to the soil potential will increase the gross margin, cash flow and IRR of the farm.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University