Socio-economic assessment of the consequences of flooding in Northern Namibia

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study was conducted in the Cuvelai Basin in Northern Namibia to assess vulnerability and socio-economic impacts of flooding on local residents, and to suggest ways to counteract the consequences of flooding in rural areas of the Basin. This followed severe flooding in 2009, 2011 and 2012. These combined flooding episodes had a substantial impact on local residents and the Namibian economy, with estimated losses of approximately US$136.4 million (NAD1364 million) in direct damage and US$78.2 million (NAD780 million) in indirect losses. The consequences of flooding amounted to ~1% of the country's 2009 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).Rural residents in the Cuvelai Basin live predominantly on small farm holdings ('ekove') allocated by local village leadership, and depend heavily on subsistence farming for their livelihoods. Since higher-lying ground with soil best suited for crop production becomes scarcer, residents are allocated land in low-lying areas which are smaller and more susceptible to floods. The destruction of crops, farm and grazing land, trees and livestock, by floods and similar disasters is of a huge concern. The study sought to assess the impacts of flooding, geographical or physical circumstances that place residents at risk, and socio-economic conditions that lead to vulnerability. The study also attempted to assess whether traditional leaders (headmen) and village residents can use flood risk maps to create plans to reduce flood vulnerability.Over the past flood years, initiatives by the government to cope with floods have been response (relief), short-term and heavily donor dependent. To cope with floods and agro-climatic changes in their basin, rural residents have evolved their practices, some of which are traditional, to help lessen the impacts of floods on their livelihoods. Unfortunately such knowledge is not fully acknowledged by policy, decision makers and disaster risk managers. As a result of this knowledge gap, the study's objective of compiling these practices, serves as a means to document localized traditional flood response, mitigation and adaptive measures. Moreover, the study will suggest contemporary adaptive measures as recommended by the local rural residents.Residents in 314 households were interviewed during August to November 2012. The households were selected following recommendations by village headmen, and consisted of 273 flooded homes, 42 village leaders, and 35 homes that were not flooded from 45 randomly selected villages. The qualitative data was captured, pre-coded, processed and analysed in Microsoft Excel, SPSS and STATISTICA to derive descriptive and inferential statistics. Following consultations with village headmen and residents, recommendations were made on practical adaptive strategies to flooding.The study found that there is a need to foster community level participation, buy-in and involvement in disaster risk management strategies in order to reduce the gap between technical early warning mechanisms and indigenous knowledge. Results revealed that households with coinciding socio-economic and geographic vulnerability are heavily impacted by flood disasters. However, these two vulnerabilities are not directly proportional to each other. Other vulnerable groups in society were outlined and structural and non-structural mitigation and preparedness measures at household level were recommended by the residents.It is the study's intention that this will assist in strengthening local residents adaptive capabilities during events of flooding, thereby mitigating their impacts. The project's intention of documenting this technical and indigenous knowledge, will serve as a knowledge base that can be compiled and integrated into an effective village friendly flood early warning system. It is further hoped that this initiative will garner support at the policy level and contribute to the prioritization of flood response to pending disasters being placed at the centre of development planning and execution.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University