Establishing a new biofuel crop using System Thinking

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The complexity of adopting a new crop-based biodiesel feedstock into South Africa given the prevailing environmental, economic and social concerns facing the country are addressed in this study by utilising a Systems Thinking approach.Solaris is a new variety of Tobacco developed specifically as an energy crop over the last twelve years by Italian companies Plantechno and Sunchem. Small-scale trials have been underway over the last year in the Loskop Valley farming community in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. These trials have been managed by the newly-formed local entity, Toboil (Pty) Ltd.In order to assess the viability of introducing Solaris into Loskop in terms of addressing the current diesel and electricity needs of the community and larger over-arching biofuel goals of South Africa, the full System Dynamic Modelling process was employed. This included significant research, stakeholder engagement, a Systems Thinking workshop as well as model development and simulation using the System Dynamics programming tool, Vensim.Following the simulation of various scenarios, it was determined that in order for Solaris implementation to have the greatest impact on the diesel and electricity independence desires of the community, as well as maximising job creation and avoided greenhouse gas emissions, the first five to ten years of implementation may only achieve low to moderate profitability. It was further concluded that if crop-based biofuels are to help meet the rural development goals of South Africa then significant investment and skills transfer is required. In order to address both of these, a modular development process is advocated and should be aided and mentored by members of the commercial farming industry.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University