Development of a wind damage and disaster risk model for South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT:This dissertation presents the development process of a wind damage and disastermanagement support model for South Africa. Several aspects of wind damage areanalysed. The impact of wind disasters on human habitat is highlighted by providingselected data of loss due to such events. This is followed by a comprehensive review ofrelevant research, carried out locally and internationally. The role and relevance of windloading codification is discussed.The factors influencing wind damage are identified and their applicability to South Africanconditions is evaluated. An outline of a database of wind damage in South Africa which hasbeen developed during the course of the project is presented. Selected statistics derivedfrom this database are presented.A probabilistic model for assessing wind damage in South Africa is proposed. The model isbased on the spatial principle of occurrence of strong wind events. A 'first approximation'division of the country into zones where various types of wind events occur and thecharacteristics of their generic footprints (i.e. distribution of wind speeds) are developed.The risk model procedure also takes the distribution of wealth, and the vulnerability of thebuilt environment into account.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University