The role of the agricultural sector in the South African economy

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The importance of the agricultural sector in the South African economy isoften stressed by farmers and agricultural industry organisations. The reality,however, is that the sector has constituted less than 3% of the economy since2005 (DAS, 2012). It is therefore important that the current role of the agriculturalsector in the South African economy is investigated. This has beenthe subject of a number of studies. The most comprehensive study to date wasundertaken by Brand (1969) within the well-known framework of Johnston andMellor (1961). A number of less comprehensive studies have followed. This isthe second comprehensive analysis of the role of the agricultural sector in theSouth African economy. This study reapplies Brand's (1969) framework to thedata currently available. The results are contrasted with those obtained byBrand (1969) and other authors, in order to establish whether, and if so how,the role of the sector has changed in the last 50 years. The results obtainedare then incorporated into policy suggestions.The findings of this thesis are, firstly, that the agricultural sector has beenunable to meet the demand for the main food items consumed domesticallysince 2000. This, however, did not result in the predicted rapid increase infood and general inflation. Secondly, agricultural exports have not played agrowth-leading, but rather a balancing role in economic development, becausethe sector maintained a positive trade balance during the full period of analysis.Thirdly, the sector has released labour to the rest of the economy since 1962,thereby fulfilling what is seen as a requirement by the economic developmentliterature. Fourthly, the sector has probably made a net transfer of capital tothe rest of the economy since the mid-2000s. Lastly, the agricultural sectorplus the sectors with which it has the strongest linkages represented around7% of the economy in 2010.This study concurs with Brand's (1969) main conclusion that the South Africanagricultural sector does not play a growth-leading or initiating role in the economy,but rather a growth-permissive role. This is due to the sector's relativelysmall quantitative significance in the economy, which limits the growth impactof agricultural exports, capital transfers from the sector and linkages with therest of the economy. The sector plays a growth-enabling role, however, by supplyingfood to consumers at the lowest possible price - either by producing itdomestically, or by affording food imports with the exchange earned throughthe export of agricultural produce. In addition, the sector has an importantrole in providing employment, especially in rural areas.It is recommended that the current agricultural marketing and internationaltrade policy framework, which is conducive to international trade and limitsmarket distortions, is retained. The sector has the potential, given the adoptionof the required policy, to create employment by virtue of its relativelyhigh labour intensity and the existence of some complementarities betweencapital and labour in the sector. Also, the competiveness of the sector shouldbe increased by means of an investment in infrastructure.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University