Origin and phylodynamics of HIV-1 subtype C in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The HIV epidemic in the past couple of decades has spread at an alarming rate throughout Southern Africa. Today the region accounts for roughly one third of all HIV infections, while prevalence rates in other areas of sub-Saharan Africa remain low. In the following study, sampled sequences from Cape Town, spanning over a 21-year period were used to investigate the epidemic history of HIV, which was compared to epidemic trends across Southern Africa.Longitudinal sequence data sets were generated from stored patient samples from Cape Town through standard molecular techniques. Firstly, these sequences were used to estimate the date of origin of the HIV epidemic in Cape Town and to reconstruct a demographic history of the epidemic with advanced Bayesian inference methods. These analyses placed the estimated date of origin of the Cape Town epidemic around the mid 1960‟s with periods of strong epidemic growth observed during the mid 1980‟s and 1990‟s. Secondly, reference strains of HIV from Southern African countries were used to estimate the date of origin of the epidemic in the Southern African region. These analyses placed the date of origin of the epidemic in the Southern African region around the mid 1950‟s roughly ten years before the start of the epidemic in Cape Town/South Africa. These sequences were also used for the reconstruction of the demographic history of the epidemic in the region. A two phased growth in the HIV epidemic in the Southern African region was observed with exponential growth occurring in the mid 1980‟s and 1990‟s. Such findings are also supported by HIV prevalence estimates made by some of the leading HIV research centres and government health departments. Thirdly, a large number of homologous reference strains were used to establish the evolutionary relationship of HIV isolates from Cape Town with those from around the world. A close genetic relationship between Cape Town isolates with other South African and other Southern African isolates was observed in these analyses. Finally, large monophyletic clusters of Cape Town isolates, which was observed during the evolutionary inference, were further investigated. After detailed analyses it appears that these transmission clusters of HIV-1 have been in circulation amongst the infected population of Cape Town for several years or decades.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University