The kingdom of Lesotho : an assessment of problems in democratic consolidation

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The main problem investigated in this study is why a homogeneous nation with ahigh literacy rate such as Lesotho has had so many breakdowns of democracy sinceindependence in 1966. Lesotho is completely surrounded and economicallydependent on South Africa and depends mostly on the external sources of income(migrant remittances, customs revenues and foreign aid). Why has this democracynot consolidated?For the assessment of the consolidation of Lesotho's democracy, this study adoptedthe multivariate model of Bratton and Van de Walle. This model uses institutional aswell as socio-economic variables. In the application of this model various otherauthors were used as well. Schedler dealt with the concept of breakdowns, whereasLinz and Stepan emphasised institutions and Przeworski et. al and Leftwich alsoutilised multivariate models, including socio-economic factors.Upon the attainment of independence, the King became a constitutional monarchwithin a parliamentary system. The monarchy was from the beginning ofindependence uncomfortable with this status that granted him limited powers. Thedemocratic regime inaugurated with the 1965 elections lasted only till 1970, whenthe ruling party under Chief Leabua Jonathan which did not support the monarchy,declared the election results invalid and suspended the constitution after his rulingparty lost to the opposition. But Chief Leabua Jonathan was toppled from statepower in 1986 by the military. The military ruled for eight years. It was clear that themonarchy (eager for executive powers) and the military became factors in thesurvival of democracy in Lesotho.Democratic rule was relaunched in 1993. The 1993 and 1998 elections werefollowed by violent power struggles. This time the constituency-based electoralsystem served as catalyst for the political crises and was blamed. This is becauseseats did not reflect electoral support as opposition parties were not adequatelyrepresented in parliament. Constitutional reforms followed and in 2002 democraticrule was reintroduced. The 2002 and 2007 elections were conducted under theMixed Member Proportional (MMP) system, which is a hybrid between constituencyivbased and proportional representation. Despite the electoral reforms, uncertaintiesstill remained as the result of escalating socio-economic problems.This study addresses the ways in which the monarchy, the military, the electoralsystem and the socio-economic factors contributed to the breakdown of democracyin Lesotho. The original aspect of this study lies in the novel set of questions thathave not been asked before. It fills the gap in the literature on the 2007 elections andthe workings of the new electoral system by comparing the 2002 and the 2007elections.Despite the constitutional reforms in 2002, the 2007 elections resulted in the new setof problems. The problem of the Lesotho MMP system is how it has to beoperationalised and the lack of understanding among the politicians and electorateson how it works. This situation is exacerbated by the absence of legal and clearguidelines on how the translation of votes into seats– especially for candidates underproportional representation (PR) – has to be undertaken in cases where there arecoalitions between parties. This institutional reform of the electoral system has notadded any value for the development of democracy as losing parties have refused toadhere to the rules.Apart from the electoral system, some of the other core problems are older andinstitutional. The monarchy has over the years been at the root of some of thecountry's democratic breakdowns. It also had influence in the military. The militaryinstituted a period of authoritarianism and managed the transition to democratic rulein the early 1990s.The monarchy and the military continued to destabilise the post-1993 democratic governments until 1998, after which the electoral system wasreformed.But the problems are not only institutional. Lesotho is a democracy with low percapita income. It also has high levels of inequalities as well as high unemployment.Lesotho also has one of the highest HIV/Aids rates in Southern Africa. The countryperforms poorly when measured against aspects of the United Nations HumanDevelopment Index (HDI) such as life expectancy, mortality rates and standard ofliving. It is the poorest country, with the lowest HDI of Southern Africa's 'freenations, according to Freedom House. These socio-economic problems haveimpacted negatively on the prospects of democratic consolidation.One positive aspect is the high literacy rate of over 80%. But this has not benefitedLesotho's democracy in any meaningful way as most of its educated people areworking in South Africa. The country does not have a sizeable middle class, whilecivil society, except for churches, is also weak. While the monarchy and military havebeen successfully depoliticised, Lesotho's democracy remains unconsolidatedbecause of weaknesses in the electoral system (lack of understanding of itsoperationalisation) and continuing problems of socio-economic development. Itsethnic homogeneity is not an asset either as other divisions have recurred all thetime. The overall conclusion is therefore that although most institutional factorsresponsible for democratic breakdowns in the past have been overcome, the socioeconomicvariables such as poverty, weak civil society, small middle class andsocio-economic inequality will hinder consolidation for a long time to come.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University