The economic demography of South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT:It is remarkable that population, which is at the centre of the economic problem - the Wealth ifnot the Poverty of Nations - has received scant attention in economic research in South Africa.Which is probably why we can have a NEW - so designated in the Draft Report - populationpolicy propounded by government (in 1997) which manifests little appreciation of the economicsof population. This dissertation is an attempt to demonstrate why the void should be filled and tobring to light specific topics within the broader subject matter that could be fruitfully researched.The demographic scene in South Africa lends itself to a telling demonstration of the economiceffects of population movements by way of contrasting the experience of the high fertility,youthful Black population - with a total fertility rate of around 37 after having been 6,75 in the1950s - and that of the demographically older non-Blacks, among whom the Whites exhibit afertility level way below the replacement rate of 2,1, while that of the Asians (Indians) andColoureds has almost reached that rate. Since the former has a share of more than a dominantthree-quarters in the aggregate South African population, the emphasis is inevitably on theeconomic consequences of rapid population growth and its attendant demographic magnitudes:fertility, mortality, migration, age and sex composition, spatial distribution and, what is calledeconomic quality of the population as manifested in its supply of enterprise.The analysis is presented in the traditional supply and demand paradigm. Supply is examined bylinking demographic forces to the five factors of production whose co-operation is responsiblefor the generation of the national product: entrepreneurship, (ordinary) labour, natural resources,technology and capital. The population has to generate an adequate supply of entrepreneurs, andthe two human factors of production have to have one or more of the non-human factors at theirdisposal to accommodate the population economically. Proliferating human numbers can bedestructive of natural resources, and in conflict with the formation of capital, the accumulation oftechnology and their potential economic welfare-enhancing operation.The demand aspects are analysed by linking on to the four macro demand components in thenational accounts system: Household consumption, Government consumption, Investment (visa-vis saving) and foreign trade. Some of the issues discussed are: the stability deriving from apopulation elasticity of demand close to 1,0; the comparative significance of the populationversus the affluence factor; the role of high fertility in the acquisition, at the election polls, of economic power via political power, and its consequences for the diversion of demand; thecapital absorbed in demographic investments; and the significance of the South African factorendowment for its foreign trade.From the above analyses conclusions could be drawn about econormc growth, poverty,unemployment and the economic value of a life.In human populations, in sub-Saharan Africa at least, quantity is the adversary of quality.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University