A Techno-economic and pricing strategy simulation model of multiple manufacturing companies supplying micro milling

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Micro milling is a fairly new machining technology and is still developing in leaps and bounds. Many new products are also smaller than the products they replace, driven by microprocessing, portability advantages and resource scarcity.This allows micro manufacturing in general and micro milling specifically to increase market share at the expense of traditional manufacturing technologies.Advantages in capital cost, labour, materials volumes and operating costs all add to the attractiveness of micro manufacturing. The ability to manufacturesmaller batches economically promotes local manufacture and has a smaller carbon footprint than traditional approaches. It also fits well with the conceptsof mass customisation and tailor-made products in the medical implants area.Other, more esoteric concepts, such as cloud storage and design coupled with local manufacture, have impacts to potentially simplify local manufacture andlower overheads.Such new technology and rapid changes in the market require timely and informed decisions by businesses to become more efficient and stay competitive.Simultaneously, business risk must be considered. A techno-economic feasibility studies or business plans are common ways to support such a complex decisionmaking process. A methodology to do a comprehensive techno-economic feasibility study is described and followed.The techno-economic feasibility study depends on various aspects such as market demand, a model of a typical business process, generating of potentialoutcomes through applying simulation and evaluating the simulation output.By way of a market analysis and literature study, the most advantageous marketsto consider for micro milling were identified as medical implants, researchand prototyping, small and medium batches of complex 3D shapes, electronicsdevices and dental accessories.One way to explore the business potential of new technology and simultaneouslyconsider risks is through simulation. A simulation model of the technologyenvironment was set up and simulated outcomes were used to assess risks versusopportunities. The simulation used in conjunction with the techno-economicfeasibility study allowed a thorough investigation of the issues involved, conclusionsto be drawn and recommendations to be made.Some conclusions include the following. Companies which are interested innew technologies should have at least some human resources available to allowtechnology transfer to be successful. Software and hardware training, time togain experience and insight into the financial aspects of the new technology willall have an impact on the success of the investment. If the company is alreadyactive in the macro milling market, the techno-economic feasibility study showsthat such knowledge should be sufficient to allow the company to become moreefficient and competitive if they invested in micro milling. The market size,competing companies and minimum required rates of return all have bearing onthese decisions. Using a simulation model more completely identifies the probableoutcomes, but also shows that the future will not limited to deterministicoutcomes.The market analysis of potential products that can be manufactured usingmicro milling showed that there is ample space in the manufacturing sector toinvest in this technology and that the uptake of the technology is far from saturation.Many of the identified markets are in growth phases and will continueto grow for many years according to forecasts. Some barriers to success includeskill requirements, complex process chains, compatibility issues with softwareand hardware and penetration of high technology markets. Universities are infavourable positions to facilitate some of the technology transfer by using theirresearch capacities wisely.The simulations showed that the initial market size, required minimum interestrates or hurdle rates, growth rates of the markets, pricing strategy and numberof competing companies in the market will have the greatest impact in the choice of investing.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University