Knowledge management and early warning systems : the case of Southern African Development Community's conflict prevention strategy

[摘要] Africa's socio-economic reconstruction and development is constrained by the spate of violentconflicts afflicting the continent. Internecine strife and humanitarian concerns have promptedinternational debates surrounding the efficacy of existing conflict prevention, management andresolution strategies. With Africa seemingly in a semi-permanent state of tension and crisis, and theinability of the global and continental systems and structures to effectively deal with thesesituations, it requires a disentanglement of a 'complex interplay of institutional-bureaucratic andpolitical dynamics, that place the continent at the centre of intervention dilemma. At the end of the Cold War, violent conflictson the continent did not wither away, but have become so complex, thus confounding efforts toachieve sustainable peace. This complexity requires greater efforts to improve international,regional and subregional institutional capacities and contingency instruments to facilitate effective responses. The key emphasis within the international community is to enhance instruments tofacilitate early detection of conflict situations in order to initiate preventive actions. Put differently,conflict prevention can be facilitated through the dynamic improvement of the processes, structuresand functions of (conflict) early warning systems (EWS). In addition, political will is crucialtowards the operationalisation of such systems to ensure swift and coordinated implementation ofpreventive actions. Cedric de Coning argues that conflict early warning systems can 'improve ourability to generate the political will necessary to authorize preventive action much earlier in theconflict cycle, by improving our ability to estimate the potential future cost of inaction, and the waywe bring this information to the attention of decision makers. Schmeidl also argues that 'earlywarning needs to be seen as a precondition to developing political will, and thus initiate (or betterinform) reasonable response strategies. However, existing organisational structures crucial forfacilitating and expediting conflict prevention initiatives, suffer from 'inertia due to entrenchedpolitical structures, hierarchies and competing interests. The United Nations (UN) is an international body with the authority to facilitate conflict prevention.However, it is constrained by organisational complexities such as sectional political self-interestand the 'bureaucratic red tape in large bureaucracies, thus hampering its ability to swiftly and withthe correct mandate, to respond to a call for preventive intervention. Hence the devolution of theresponsibilities for the settlement of conflicts to the regional and subregional bodies. Conflicts havealso 'tended to pay little respect to State borders, proving the necessity for inter-State cooperation.Because of the regionalisation of conflicts, the case of inter-regional collaborationhas become increasingly vital as the 'appropriate initial actors in seeking to defuse tensions andresolve local disputes within the region. To this end, stronger intergovernmental mechanisms tofacilitate early recognition of conflict situations and early intervention to prevent eruption ormitigate escalation have to be maintained. African countries, as a result, bear the burden of peace interventions from the African Union (AU) which consists of 53 members, to regional economiccommunities (RECs) such as Southern African Development Community (SADC), which consistsof 14 members. These organisations are attenuated by bureaucratic ineptitude for adaptivebehaviour that impact on swift and flexible responses. Nation states with diverse historical backgrounds, different political systems and unequal economicstrengths are inclined to have fundamental inequalities in power and influence. Consequently,opposing political values, national interest and competing rationalities underlining their actionsbecome sources of contention and impede the establishment of a common ground. These hurdlesbreed tensions and suspicion that impact on coordination of effort and information sharingregarding conflict situations. Thus, to surmount these barriers, it is imperative to reconcilecompeting interests through comprehensive inclusiveness, cooperation and effective collaborativepartnerships among various stakeholders, particularly civil society and political decision makers.'Preventive action' must, insists the International Peace Academy (IPA), 'not be considered as anexpedient product or event, but as a continuous, organic process that necessitates a highest degreeof inclusiveness and multisectoral participation in dialogue and peace-building. These aspectsshould be institutionalised within the inter-regional organisations to establish the culture of commoneffort for common purpose. In the interest of collective effort and to expand AU's capacity for conflict prevention, the Peaceand Security Council (PSC) was established in 2003. The PSC is defined as 'a collective securityand early warning arrangement to facilitate timely and efficient response to conflict and crisissituation in Africa. Apparently, the PSC, as an instrument of conflict prevention on thecontinent, is also aimed at achieving unity of thought in dealing with the threats to peace andstability. In conflict situations, state sovereignty, political desirability and competing goals oftenrender peace processes ineffective due to differences regarding the best course of action. The PSCis regarded as the means to create a platform for shared understanding and common visionregarding the challenge of conflict prevention. Still, to be more effective, it requires a strongcollaboration with subregional organisations (e.g. SADC) and multisectoral participation of, forexample academics, research institutes, civil society organisations (CSOs), non-governmental(NGOs) and community-based organisations (CBOs). The main thrust should be to create a shared framework for political decision makers to make 'collective sense of the problems on thecontinent, and be in a position to synchronise efforts to achieve peace and stability. Conversely, theAU and also SADC remain politically diverse organisations. As such, operationalisation of conflictprevention initiatives is likely to encounter obstacles emanating from, as Gina van Schalkwykindicated, 'conflict around political values amongst states in the [sub]region and …disputes on thebasis of divergent interpretations [of policies]. This creates a paradox between the necessity ofconflict prevention and the divergent national interests. Convergent thinking and creating a sharedoutlook in the existing organisational frameworks (e.g. SADC) is imperative in order to generatepolitical will and to facilitate improved decision making and implementation of proactive responsesin the prevention of conflicts.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University