Using capital intensity and return on capital employed as filters for security selection

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Do firms that have low dependence on physical assets as well as high profitability outperform companies with the opposite characteristics in the market? Despite the lack of empirical research, conventional wisdom would suggest that they should. Conceptually, investors should prefer profitable companies to less profitable companies, and lower capital-intensive to high capital-intensity firms. Using a large sample of global stocks over the period from 1988 to 2010, the effect of using capital intensity and return on capital employed (ROCE) as filters for portfolio inclusion was investigated.A quantitative research approach was followed in this study. This involved dividing the sample into five subsets, or quintiles, according to the specific metric (for example capital intensity). The total return of an equally weighted portfolio was then measured for each quintile for the subsequent 12 months. The portfolio was rebalanced annually and the subsequent 12-month return recorded. Because enhanced performance on new capital investments may take longer than 12 months to be reflected in share prices, quintile performance was also measured over five-year holding periods.The empirical findings of this study reveal that there was no discernible pattern of outperformance by low capital-intensive quintiles using annual rebalancing. However, the lowest capital-intensive firms had the highest average returns using five-year holding periods. The highest ROCE firms performed best with annual rebalancing and with five-year holding periods. Combining both capital intensity and ROCE, a portfolio focused on low capital intensity and high profitability produced a compound annual growth rate that is 9.18 percentage points higher than a portfolio focused on the highest capital intensity and the lowest ROCE. Over five-year holding periods there is a distinct outperformance by low capital-intensive firms with high operational profitability.These results indicate that allocation of investment capital to capital-intensive companies with low operational profitability seems likely to impair long-term returns, and there may be value in a focus on low capital-intensity firms that are able to generate high returns on capital employed.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University