Climate change in the Western Cape : a disaster risk assessment of the impact on human health

[摘要] BackgroundThe Disaster Management Act (Act 57 of 2002) instructs a paradigm shift from preparedness,response and recovery towards risk reduction. In order to plan for and mitigate risks, all spheres ofgovernment must firstly assess their hazards, vulnerabilities, capacity to cope and therefore risks.Studies in this regard, in South Africa, have however only focussed on current risks. ClimateChange has now been accepted by leading international studies as a reality. Climate change canimpact upon many aspects of life on earth. Studies to quantify the impact of climate change onwater resources, biodiversity, agriculture and sustainable development are steadily increasing, buthuman health seem to have been neglected. Only general predictions, mostly regarding vector-bornedisease and injury related to natural disasters are found in literature. Studies in South Africa haveonly focussed on malaria distribution. Most studies, internationally and the few in South Africa,were based on determining empirical relationships between weather parameters and diseaseincidence, therefore assessing only the hazard, and not the disaster risk.MethodologyThis study examines the impact of climate change on human health in the Western Cape, within thecontext of disaster management. A qualitative approach is followed and includes:· A literature overview examining predicted changes in climate on a global and regional scale,· A discussion on the known relationships and possible impacts climate change might have onhuman health,· A disaster risk assessment based on the status quo for a case study area, the Cape WinelandsDistrict Municipality,· An investigation into the future risks in terms of health, taking into account vulnerabilities andsecondary impacts of climate change, resulting in the prioritisation of future risks.· Suggestions towards mitigation within the South African context.ResultsThe secondary impacts of climate change were found to have the larger qualitative impact. Theimpact of climate change on agriculture, supporting 38% of the population can potentially destroythe livelihoods of the workforce, resulting in poverty-related disease. Other impacts identified were injuries and disease relating to temperature, floods, fire and waterquality.ConclusionRisk is a function of hazard, vulnerability and capacity to cope. The impact of an external factor ona 'spatial system' should be a function of the impacts on all these factors. Disasters are notincreasing because of the increase in the frequency of hazards, but because of the increasingvulnerability to hazards. This study illustrated that the major impacts of the external factor couldactually be on the vulnerabilities and the indirect impacts, and not on the hazard itself. Climatechange poses a threat to many aspects of the causative links that should be addressed by disastermanagement, and its impacts should be researched further to determine links and vulnerabilities.This research also illustrates that slow onset disasters hold the potential to destroy just as much asextreme events such as Katrina, Rita or a tsunami. It also reiterates that secondary impacts may notbe as obvious, but are certainly not of secondary importance.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University