Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology adoption in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa (SA) aims to generate 42 per cent of its electricity from renewable energytechnology sources by 2030. To achieve this target, the government started the RenewableEnergy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) to allow easyintegration of renewable energy technologies into the existing energy mix. The country hasan abundant solar resource, and the potential to harvest this resource through concentratingsolar power (CSP) has been proven. In 2010, concentrating solar power (CSP) was one of themajor renewable energy technologies that was prioritised by SA, and as a result 600 MW ofCSP have been bought in the REI4P, and this includes seven plants that have been, or arebeing, built. Conversely, recent events have shown that the future of CSP in South Africalooks bleak, as the government's recent Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) updates gave noallocation to new CSP plants beyond 2030. Several factors have contributed to the chasm inthe adoption of CSP technology in the country. Very few CSP plants are connected to thegrid, and there is limited research and literature on its learning effect and economics ofscale. Also, the impacts of this technology on South Africa's trade and the localmanufacturing industries, as well as on the local research, development, and innovationcommunity, have not been investigated to date.This research presents a detailed analysis of the CSP technologies in South Africa in termsof the existing technology adoption models and diffusion strategies, used by governmentand its agencies, to improve the development and deployment of these technologies. Thestudy also analyses the state of CSP, concerns, and complex issues limiting the deploymentof the technology in the country. The study then uses mathematical relationship todetermine the progress ratio, the learning effect, and the likely future of CSP in the country.The impact of the CSP technology on economics and trade were then quantified and atechnology specific roadmap was developed.The innovation analysis carried out on CSP technologies in South Africa shows that its tariffis currently higher than that of other major RETs (wind and PV), and that the innovation experience of the CSP technology is incremental, as each subsequent plant was an improvement on previous facilities elsewhere. The development of research into innovation, and eventually into market products of CSP systems, is improving with a closer relationship and working together of the stakeholders. This progress, however, is slow, because of the limited knowledge in identifying and understanding the important activities and policy instruments that can aid the prioritisation of important actions to forge better relationships among stakeholders, and fast track the deployment of CSP.The expert elicitation analysis on the impact of RD&D funding on the present and future cost of electricity from CSP presents a RD&D investment strategy that will foster technological improvement and adoption of CSP in the country. Three RD&D funding scenarios are presented and analysed, and an allocation procedure was developed. The results show that strategic policies, laws and the right funding can help South Africa to fully maximize its CSP resources potential to foster cost reduction and market viability of its solar innovations.The result from the systems dynamics analysis shows that improved support for research is the most effective way to open new methods and ways in which the CSP technologies can be deployed, which will foster further CSP adoption in in the country. Further analysis, based on the data from literature and existing plants, highlights the current state of CSP in South Africa for capacity and costs. The economic indicators of CSP, which include LCOE, LPOE, DNI, and specific costs, are discussed, and the most realistic future cost of CSP in SA is presented. Limitations to the learning effect of CSP in SA are identified; existing principles were used with limited data to develop the learning rate, progress ratio, and cost reduction rate of CSP. The study shows that there are no existing patterns in the capital costs of the existing CSP plants in SA for technology, size, solar multiple, site location, or storage capacity; this makes the experience curve analysis of the CSP industry difficult. The solar field cost, which is the most significant capital cost, was analysed independently to give an idea of what the CSP experience curve might look like. The CSP learning rate in SA was calculated, the future of capital costs was then determined, and the likely experience curve for CSP in SA was presented. The assessment of the SA local manufacturing capabilities for CSP related services identified strength and the challenges of the sector. It further estimated the economic and social benefits of improvements, including the employment opportunities, and the overall impacts on trade and economy. A technology specific roadmap was developed in this study to present a framework for the medium term CSP adoption outlook in South Africa.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University