East Africa's growing power : challenging Egypt's hydropolitical position on the Nile

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This case study on East Africa analyses the impact of changing power relations over the lastdecade on Egypt's hydro-hegemony on the Nile River Basin. Covering one-tenth of Africa'slandmass and providing resources for the 340 million people and countless species, the Nile isexemplary of Africa's geographic, cultural and ecological diversity, as well as its politicalcomplexity. Eleven riparian states lie in its basin area and compete for dwindling waterresources as demand rises in a highly asymmetrical power relationship between upstream anddownstream states.Egypt, although geographically disadvantaged due to its downstream position, has establishedhydro-hegemony by combining material capabilities, legal and institutional mechanisms, aswell as knowledge production. Its relative wealth is contingent upon the supply of Nile water,as it makes up 95% of Egypt's freshwater. Egypt has legally secured its claim through the1959 Treaty on the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters which divides the Nile water flowbetween Egypt and Sudan. Egypt further established consolidated control by using itsdownstream position in the World Bank to de facto veto upstream hydro-electric powerprojects throughout the 1990s.In contrast, the East African Community Partner States only started to lay claim to the waterover the last decade due to its history of colonialism, proxy wars and political instability. In2002, the EAC decided to manage the Lake Victoria Basin jointly. Paired with growingstability and economic growth in the region, this management has attracted Chineseinvestment in hydro-electric power projects, notably dams, giving East Africa financialindependence from both the World Bank and Egypt to build hydro-infrastructure projects.East African states use the influx of Chinese investments to increase their respective defencebudgets while Egypt's military spending, as a share of GDP, has been decreasing over the lastdecade. Under the Nyerere Doctrine, East African states refuse to honour the 1959 Treaty andhave asked for re-negotiation. The first step was taken in 2011, when six upstream statesunder EAC leadership signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement paving the way for renegotiation,in the face of Egypt's explicit refusal.Domestic factors in Egypt, coupled with East Africa's growing self-confidence, are slowlychanging the power relations in the Nile basin. Using the London Water Research Group'sHydro-Hegemony framework in a triangular diachronic single-case study research design, thisstudy traces the processes of counter-hegemony and hydropolitical power shifts.Understanding these political processes is the first step towards the sustainable distribution ofthe Nile water resources on the basin level.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University