Development of a method to forecast future systems in the forest engineering value chain

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT:The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecastthe Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South Africancontext in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results areused to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future.To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, thehistorical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in SouthAfrica. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determinedthrough a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflectedin Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world,including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. Thesetechniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technologyforecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches tofinancial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundestmethod of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. Thisincludes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations.The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a usefulmethod, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering valuechain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review offorecasting methodologies.The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in theSouth African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of aDelphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on futuredevelopments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 ForestEngineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood,based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the futurecost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery.Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry shouldprepare itself for the future.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University