On the development and application of indirect site indexes based on edaphoclimatic variables for commercial forestry in South Africa

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Site Index is used extensively in modern commercial forestry both as an indicator of current and future site potential, but also as a means of site comparison. The concept is deeply embedded into current forest planning processes, and without it empirical growth and yield modelling would not function in its present form. Most commercial forestry companies in South Africa currently spend hundreds of thousands of Rand annually collecting growth stock data via inventory, but spend little or no money on the default compartment data (specifically Site Index) which is used to estimate over 90% of the product volumes in their long term plans. A need exists to construct reliable methods to determine Site Index for sites which have not been physically measured (the socalled default, or indirect Site Index). Most previous attempts to model Site Index have used multiple linear regression as the model, alternative methods have been explored in this thesis: Regression tree analysis, random forest analysis, hybrid or model trees, multiple linear regression, and multiple linear regression using regression trees to identify the variables. Regression tree analysis proves to be ideally suited to this type of data, and a generic model with only three site variables was able to capture 49.44 % of the variation in Site Index. Further localisation of the model could prove to be commercially useful.One of the key assumptions associated with Site Index, that it is unaffected by initial planting density, was tested using linear mixed effects modelling. The results show that there may well be role played by initial stocking in some species (notably E. dunnii and E. nitens), and that further work may be warranted. It was also shown that early measurement of dominant height results in poor estimates of Site Index, which will have a direct impact on inventory policies and on data to be included in Site Index modelling studies.This thesis is divided into six chapters: Chapter 1 contains a description of the concept of Site Index and it's origins, as well as, how the concept is used within the current forest planning processes. Chapter 2 contains an analysis on the influence of initial planted density on the estimate of Site Index. Chapter 3 explores the question of whether the age at which dominant height is measured has any effect on the quality of Site Index estimates. Chapter 4 looks at various modelling methodologies and compares the resultant models. Chapter 5 contains conclusions and recommendations for further study, and finally Chapter 6 discusses how any new Site Index model will effect the current planning protocol.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University