An analysis of the evolving military futures debate : explaining alternative military futures for the South African National Defence Force

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Twenty-first century armed forces increasingly have to operate amidst unprecedented uncertaintyand complexity cascading onto the military domain. Not only are their roles and implicitly theirwhole being now constantly questioned; the historic rationale for their existence is also underpressure. New and even unorthodox responsibilities find their way into and increasingly begin toeclipse and challenge traditional elements that configure the military sphere. Adjustmentstowards new futures thus become essential, as the images of warless futures and endisms aboutwar remain merely that - images. Subsequently, notions about the adaptive military and armedforces being open ended systems sensitive to and capable of remaining in step with unfoldingfutures, become imperatives. In addition to learning from history, military futures now increasinglyco-feature as the domain to master in the pursuit of appropriate future armed forces.Exploring the future through a recognised field of study allows for alternative futures to unfold thatare bound to differ from an historic review and its linear continuance. This also serves as atenable argument for military futures. Only by systematically peeling away the dogma that armedforces are instruments for war and little else, can the required changes to and future contributionsof military establishments towards alternative military futures be exposed. Subsequently, militaryforces become entities capable of changing alongside their societies towards futures notpredominantly shaped for and by war. To this end, the topic of alternative military futures offersinsights into the utility of armed forces as a more contributing and constructive future policyinstrument.In researching alternative military futures through contiguous debates concerning the futuresmilitarynexus, military change, the Revolution in Military Affairs, and the unfolding strategicenvironment, it emerges that military change towards new futures is a rather slow andincremental process. Furthermore, the Revolution in Military Affairs, in spite of its prominence,offers limited future options to the majority of governments aspiring to exploit new ways andmeans for engaging military futures. In turn, the future strategic environment premises strategicfutures leaving armed forces little choice but to prepare for a horizontal threat spectrum ofsimultaneity and complexity, and a vertical dimension of a destructive-constructive merger. Thismatrix calls for expanded military means to meet complex futures characterised by simultaneityand variety through a response hierarchy comprising destructive and constructive ways andmeans. These are future challenges also faced by the defence decision-makers and militarypractitioners in South Africa. Alternative military futures for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) comprise someinterface with the dynamics posited by theories on military change, contributions by theRevolution in Military Affairs and threat-response continuum posited by the future strategicenvironment. From this challenging premise alternative military futures embedded in the moreconstructive and preventative use of its military policy instrument towards Africa in particular, aSouth African defence paradigm is emerging for employing the South African National DefenceForce in future. Renouncing the warfighting option to bring about change, accepting the volatileand complex African challenge and embracing democracy and multilaterism call for new defencethinking to probe the future. This search is bound to reveal the unfolding of alternative militaryfutures that reach beyond the expectations of South African defence decision-makers and militarypractitioners from both the apartheid and struggle generations.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University