The risk of humanitarianism : industry-specific political-security risk analysis for international agencies in conflict zones

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: International agencies are facing heightened levels of security risk in conflict zones. Thenature of contemporary conflicts and the post-9/11 global political-security environment havecontributed to a situation whereby the threat of attack as well as recurring criminal violenceare a constant reality for their employees, hindering their work and obstructing their access topeople in need. Moreover, the ability of international agencies to conduct strategic riskassessment has been called into question.The central research question of this study concerns whether an industry-specificpolitical-security risk model can be applied successfully in order to assist internationalagencies with strategic political-security risk analysis in conflict zones. In order to develop apolitical-security risk model for international agencies a number of supplementary researchquestions are asked. The first of these is what limitations the security risk models currentlyused by international agencies exhibit. The second question asks what factors and indicatorsshould be included in an industry-specific political-security risk model for internationalagencies in conflict zones. So as to test the applicability of the model developed in thisresearch study, the last question asks what the level of risk is for international agenciesoperating in the conflict zone in eastern Chad.Using political risk theory, and drawing upon political risk models specific to theenergy industry, this research study proposes an industry-specific political-security riskmodel for international agencies in conflict zones, in which the limitations of the currentmodels used by international agencies to analyse security risks are overcome. The applicationof this model to eastern Chad returns an overall risk rating of extreme, which is the highestoverall risk rating obtainable. By regularly utilising this model, international agencies areable to monitor the changing levels of security risk in a conflict zone and are therefore betterplaced to make informed strategic decisions when it comes to risk management and riskmitigation.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University